Free College Football Sports Pick: South Florida at Memphis

Nov 12, 2016

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My math model only favors South Florida by one point and the Bulls apply to a very negative 7-29 ATS college football situation of mine that invests against certain teams that allowed 31 or more points in two or more consecutive games, provided the point spread is priced between +3.5 and -3.5 points.

Memphis has been underrated for most of the season as the Tigers are 0.5 yards per play better than average from the line of scrimmage.

Memphis returns home after dismantling SMU 51-7, and the Tigers should have success moving the ball against a subpar South Florida stop unit that is 0.1 yards per play worse than average (5.6 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yards per play).

Memphis possesses a potent aerial attack that is averaging 293 yards per game at 8.3 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow just 7.3 yards per pass attempt to a mediocre quarterback.

The Bulls’ suspect secondary is giving up 274 passing yards on the road this season at 7.3 yards per pass attempt, and opposing quarterbacks are completing 61.6% of their passes against South Florida’s defensive backfield.  Overall, Memphis possesses a 0.6 yards per play advantage offensively from the line of scrimmage in this game so getting 3.5 to 4 points at home is an added bonus for us.

Let’s also note that the Tigers are 4-1 SU at home where they are averaging 43.8 points and 457 total yards per game at 6.3 yards per play and 10.4 yards per point.

South Florida’s defense continues to get worse as the season progresses, allowing 39.3 points and 507 total yards at 5.0 yards per rush attempt, 9.4 yards per pass attempt and 6.7 yards per play over its last three games.

Conference foes are averaging 478 yards per game at 6.1 yards per play against the Bulls so Memphis should move the ball at a very good clip in this game.  Indeed, the Tigers are averaging 36.3 points and 477 total yards at 6.4 yards per play in their last three games.

Finally, both teams played Temple this season – Memphis won by 7 whereas the Bulls lost by 16 points.

Grab the generous points with the live home underdog as Oskeim Sports’ free College Football Pick and invest with confidence.