Free College Football Sports Pick: Michigan State over Notre Dame

Sep 19, 2013

Michigan State (+6) (-110) over Notre Dame

The visitor is 10-2 ATS in this series, while nine of the last 13 meetings have been decided by single digits (4 of L/8 by three points).  Michigan arrives in town with an outstanding defense that is limiting opponents to a mere 12 points per game, including 50 rushing yards (1.8 yards per carry), 127 passing yards (3.8 yards per pass attempt) and 177 total yards (2.9 yards per play).  Overall, the Spartans are 1.8 yards per rush play, 0.9 yards per pass attempt and 1.3 yards per play better than average defensively in 2013.

Michigan State Defense vs. Notre Dame Offense:

  • +1.6 yards per rush play advantage
  • -0.5 yards per pass attempt disadvantage
  • +0.4 yards per play advantage

From a technical standpoint, Michigan State is 5-0 ATS in the first of back-to-back road games, 4-0 ATS as non-conference underdogs of six or more points and 4-1 ATS following three consecutive home games.  Let’s also note that Michigan State head coach Mark Dantonio is 8-5 SU and 10-2-1 ATS on the road when playing with revenge, whereas the Fighting Irish are a money-burning 2-13-1 ATS as home favorites of 13 points or less and 3-14 ATS at home versus an opponent with revenge.

My math model only favors Notre Dame by four points and one of my syndicate sources has already made a strong move on the road underdog in this game.  Grab the points and invest with confidence.