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Free College Football Sports Pick: Georgia Tech over North Carolina

Georgia Tech (-6) (-110) over North Carolina

The Yellow Jackets possess an explosive offense that is averaging 54.0 points per game this season, including 356 rushing yards (6.5 yards per carry), 157 passing yards (11.6 yards per pass attempt) and 513 total yards (7.5 yards per play; 9.5 yards per point).  Overall, Georgia Tech is 0.6 yards per rush play, 2.6 yards per pass attempt and 0.7 yards per play better than average offensively, which is certainly good enough to move the ball against a Tar Heel stop unit that is terrible against the run.

Specifically, North Carolina yielded 214 yards at 5.8 yards per rush play to both South Carolina and Middle Tennessee State, which suggests that the Tar Heels are even worse this year against the run. While Georgia Tech certainly has a powerful offense, the biggest  improvement with the Yellow Jackets is with their defense under coordinator Ted Roof.  Georgia Tech is limiting opponents to a mere 7.0 points per game, including 110 rushing yards (3.2 yards per carry), 143 passing yards (4.5 yards per pass attempt) and 253 total yards (3.9 yards per play; 36.2 yards per point). Overall, the Yellow Jackets are 0.4 yards per rush play, 1.3 yards per pass attempt and 0.7 yards per play better than average defensively in 2013.

Georgia Tech Defense vs. North Carolina Offense:

  • +1.0 yards per rush attempt advantage
  • +1.8 yards per pass attempt advantage
  • +1.0 yards per play advantage overall

Sports bettors will likely point to the revenge factor in this game, but North Carolina head coach Larry Fedora is a woeful 0-9 SU and 2-7 ATS as single-digit underdogs.  Let’s also note that the Tar Heels are 3-11 ATS off one or more consecutive wins, whereas Georgia Tech is 9-1 ATS in the first month of the season over the last three seasons. Lay the points and invest with confidence.