Free College Football Sports Pick: Kansas State at TCU

Dec 2, 2016

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The Horned Frogs are coming off a 31-9 win over a dysfunctional Texas squad to secure bowl eligibility. That win as a three-point underdog highlights the fact that head coach Gary Patterson is a money-burning 2-10 ATS following an upset road win during his tenure in Fort Worth.

Kansas State enters its college football regular-season finale having won four of its last 5 games, including consecutive wins by double-digit margins.

I have a profound level of respect for Kansas State head coach Bill Snyder, and I have no hesitation in backing him once again based upon his 45-22 ATS record versus conference opponents and his 30-18 ATS mark as an underdog.

Snyder is also a remarkable 26-9 ATS as a conference underdog after failing to cover the point spread in his previous game and 7-2 ATS in season finales versus teams off a SU and ATS win, including a perfect 6-0 ATS when the Wildcats take the field with a .401 of greater win percentage.

Let’s also note that Kansas State is a perfect 4-0 ATS as an underdog of less than a touchdown, 8-2 ATS on the road when playing with conference revenge and 19-7-1 ATS on the road versus teams with a winning home record.

Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs have failed to meet market expectations all season as evidenced by their 3-8 ATS record overall, including 2-6 ATS in conference play and 0-6 ATS at home.

The Horned Frogs’ issue at home has been poor defensive play where they have allowed 35.3 points and 440 total yards per game at 5.7 yards per play and 12.4 yards per point.

TCU’s stop unit has also yielded 454 total yards in its last three games and 432 total yards in conference action.  The Wildcats arrive in town with a surging attack that is averaging 37.7 points and 429 total yards at 5.9 yards per play and 11.4 yards per points over the last four weeks.

I also like to invest on quality college football underdogs that possess a solid ground game, and the Wildcats are averaging 224 rushing yards per game at 5.1 yards per carry this season.  That ground attack has averaged an impressive 308 yards at 5.6 yards per rush attempt over the last four weeks.

The Horned Frogs’ only two wins at home this season came against South Dakota State (59-41) and Iowa State (41-20), and Kansas State is better than both of those teams.

TCU has lost four straight home games (two of which came as a double-digit favorite), including its most recent home tilt against a subpar Texas Tech squad (27-24; 10-point favorite).

Finally, TCU running back Kyle Hicks left the Texas game with a rib injury, while quarterback Kenny Hill left the same game early in the fourth quarter with as foot injury.  Both are listed as questionable for Saturday’s season-finale.

With TCU standing at 2-8 ATS in its last ten games as a favorite, grab the points with one of the best college football coaches in the game (Bill Snyder) and invest with confidence.

Oskeim Sports’ Free College Football Sports Pick: Kansas State (+4.5)