Free College Football Pick: Hurricanes Lives Underdogs on Saturday

Oct 24, 2019

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Oskeim Sports is having another winning college football season!  In this article, Oskeim previews the college football game between Miami Florida and Pittsburgh.  Oskeim recommends taking the points with the Hurricanes as his free college football pick for Saturday, October 26.

Oskeim also recommends taking the points with the Michigan State Spartans as his free college football pick for Saturday.  The Spartans host Penn State and are six-point underdogs.  While the line is fair, the situation strongly favors Michigan State.

Penn State at Michigan State (+6)

Penn State is coming off back-to-back games against Iowa and Michigan and is traveling for the third time in four weeks.  Against Michigan, the Nittany Lions gave up 26 first downs to their own 14 and were outgained 417 yards to 283 yards.

Miami Florida (+6) at Pittsburgh

The betting market has overreacted to the team’s disparate results from last week where the Hurricanes lost to Georgia Tech 28-21 as 18.5-point favorites and the Panthers defeated Syracuse 27-20 on national television.

My math model actually favors Miami by 0.47 points in this game and the Hurricanes apply to a very strong 29-7 ATS system that invests against certain teams on an against-the-spread win streak versus opponents with a win percentage between .400 and .490. The Hurricanes are 19-3 SU and 14-7-1 ATS in this series, including 6-2 ATS in the last eight clashes.

The last time Miami was catching points in this series (and the only time), the Hurricanes left with a 29-24 victory as 7-point underdogs. Miami has also covered the point spread in four of its last 5 trips to Pittsburgh.

The Panthers are on a four-game winning streak but those wins came by a combined 14 points, with all being one-possession games. Miami head coach Manny Diaz has not announced the team’s starting quarterback for Saturday but I expect redshirt sophomore N’Kosi Perry to get the nod based on his results on the field.

Perry has completed 71.4 percent of his pass attempts for 1,086 yards, seven touchdowns and three interceptions this season. Perry is also a better choice because of his mobility as the Panthers are averaging 5.14 sacks per game in 2019.

Regardless of whether Perry or redshirt freshman Jarren Williams starts, the key in this game will be Miami’s vastly improved aerial attack under first-year offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach Dan Enos. Miami’s passing offense was one of the worst in college football last season but has improved this year in almost every important metric.

The Hurricanes are 33rd in passing offense (279.6 ypg), 28th in completion percentage (65.4%) and 33rd in passer rating (151.21).

Miami has outgained opponents by an average of 113 yards per game this season and own a solid defense that has been 0.6 yards per play better than average (4.7 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yards per play against a mediocre stop unit.

Pittsburgh will struggle to move the ball with its pedestrian offense that has been 0.1 yards per play worse than average in 2019.

With Pittsburgh standing at 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games versus .499 or worse opposition, take the Hurricanes plus the points as Oskeim Sports’ free college football pick.

Oskeim Sports’ Free College Football Pick

  • Miami Florida (+6) over Pittsburgh
  • Michigan State (+6) over Penn State