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Oskeim Sports’ Free Best Bet for June 14: Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins

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Minnesota veteran hurler Ervin Santana has been the bedrock of the Twins’ starting rotation, going 8-3 with a 2.20 ERA and 0.88 WHIP across thirteen starts this season.  The right-hander is also 3-2 with a 2.62 ERA and 0.91 WHIP at home, 5-1 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.90 WHIP at night and 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in his last three starts.

However, Santana’s peripherals do not support his surface numbers. Specifically, Santana owns a 4.47 FIP, 4.85 xFIP and a 4.91 SIERA, together with a 3.30 BB/9 rate.  His sterling ERA has been largely driven by an unsustainable .154 BABIP and a lucky 88.6% strand rate, both of which are likely to regress closer to his career numbers in those categories (.281 & 73.1%, respectively).

Santana finds no support in a Minnesota bullpen that enters tonight’s game with a 5.39 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 2017, including posting a 6.11 ERA and 1.64 WHIP at home and a 7.15 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in its last seven games.

Seattle right-hander Sam Gaviglio toes the rubber with a 2.67 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in five starts this season.  The 27-year-old rookie is about as average as it gets – 5.42 FIP, 4.25 xFIP and a 4.48 SIERA. However, he does an excellent job in keeping the ball on the ground (52.9% GB%) and has yielded one earned run in each of his past two outings.

From a technical standpoint, Seattle is 4-1 in its last five road games, 6-1 in its last seven games after giving up 5+ runs in the previous game, 9-3 in its last twelve games versus .501 or greater opposition and 11-5 in its last sixteen games overall.

The Mariners are also 4-1 in Gaviglio’s five starts this season, whereas the Twins are just 22-54 versus right-handed starters, 1-5 in their last six home games, 1-4 in game 3 of a series and 8-20 in Santana’s last 28 starts following a quality appearance in his previous outing.

Finally, Seattle applies to a very good 36-13 system that is predicated upon its blowout loss in last night’s game at Target Field (Seattle pitchers allowed a season-high in runs and a franchise high in hits).

With Seattle standing at 10-2 when avenging a road blowout loss of 8 or more runs and 36-22 after losing by 10+ runs, take the Mariners at plus-money as Oskeim Sports’ Free Best Bet for Wednesday, June 14.

Oskeim Sports’ Free Best Bet: Seattle Mariners (+122) 

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