Free Basketball Picks: New Mexico St. Poised for NCAA Tournament Run

Mar 16, 2018

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If you are looking for free basketball picks during March Madness, you have come to the right place.  Oskeim Sports provides sports bettors with free basketball picks on a daily basis.

One of Friday’s free basketball picks involves the NCAA Tournament game between New Mexico State and Clemson.  Oskeim likes the Aggies plus the points!

New Mexico State enters the NCAA Tournament on a six-game winning streak and is keenly aware of the fact that the program has lost thirteen straight NCAA Tournament games dating back to 1970.

New Mexico State’s success is based upon a solid defense that is allowing just 63.8 points per game to teams that would combine to average 72.2 points per game against a mediocre defense.

The Aggies are ranked 10th in the country in scoring defense, 5th in field goal percentage defense (39.2) and 10th in three-point field goal percentage (30.8).

Clemson is an ideal first round matchup for the Aggies, who boast one of the country’s best pick-and-roll defenses.  Meanwhile, Clemson head coach Brad Brownell finally moved away from his stagnant motion offense from years past in favor of a pick-and-roll attack.

New Mexico State employs a man-to-man defense that excels at creating half-court traps.  Indeed, the Aggies force a turnover on nearly 20 percent of opponent possessions and convert those into transition points (NMSU attempts ten percent more field goal attempts per game than its opponents).

The Aggies’ half-court defense physically wears down opposing guards and forces low-percentage shots from the perimeter.  New Mexico State also crashes the boards better than most Division I teams.

New Mexico State is ranked 6th in the nation in total rebounds (1,369), 4th in total rebounds per game (41.48), 9th in defensive rebounds per game (28.79) and 22nd in offensive rebounds per game (12.70).

Forward Jemerrio Jones, who was named WAC Player of the Year after averaging 11.0 points and 13.2 rebounds per game, leads Division I in defensive rebounds per game (9.4).

Jones brings down 37 percent of available rebounds on the defensive glass and is quite good in transition (3.1 assists per game).

Clemson is 219th nationally in offensive rebound percentage, whereas the Aggies rank 14th in defensive rebound percentage and 6th in effective field goal percentage defense.

Clemson’s pedestrian offense is just 2.0 points per game better than average (73.3 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 71.3 points per game to a mediocre offense) and has little chance of succeeding against one of the best stop units in the land.

The Tigers’ pick-and-roll attack will struggle against a New Mexico State backcourt that possesses the size, length and versatility to switch on every screen and create havoc for opposing offenses.

From a technical standpoint, Clemson is 0-15 SU and 3-12-1 ATS versus .625 or greater opposition who own a better win percentage than the Tigers.  Yikes!

Let’s also note that the Tigers are just 1-6 SU and ATS in their previous seven NCAA Tournament affairs and now face a New Mexico State squad that is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in this event against .727 or worse opposition.

No. 12 seeds in the NCAA Tournament owning a win percentage of .735 or greater are a profitable 15-3 ATS versus less-than No. 5 seeds coming off a loss in the previous seven years in this event.

New Mexico State owns win over Miami Florida and Davidson this season and is a live underdog in this first round matchup against a Clemson squad who will be without Donte Grantham.

Look for New Mexico State to end its NCAA Tournament drought with an upset win over the Tigers Friday night.  Grab the points with the Aggies as one of Oskeim’s free basketball picks for Friday, March 16.

Oskeim Sports’ Free Basketball Picks:

  • New Mexico State (+5) over Clemson
  • Syracuse (+5) over TCU
  • Xavier (-18.5) over Texas Southern