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Florida State Arrives in Raleigh With A Bullseye on its Chest

Jimbo Fisher, Dave Doeren

North Carolina State is one of the most improved teams in the nation, and the Wolfpack are led by one of the most underrated coaches in college football.  Dave Doeren arrived in Raleigh two years ago after leading Northern Illinois to consecutive eleven-win seasons, and he is 31-13 in his head coaching career, including 19-5 at home (no losses by more than 20 points).  North Carolina State has won five of its last seven home games against ranked Florida State teams, including knocking off the No. 2 ranked Seminoles in 2012.  While coach Doeren was not on the sidelines for any of those victories, he acknowledges the advantage the Wolfpack have playing in Carter-Finley Stadium.  “It just shows that Carter-Finley is a great stadium.  It’s a hard place to win.”

Fundamental Analysis:

North Carolina State is averaging 40.2 points per game on 6.3 yards per rush play, 8.2 yards per pass play and 7.1 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow just 4.9 yards per rush attempt, 6.9 yards per pass attempt and 5.7 yards per play to a mediocre offensive squad.  Overall, the Wolfpack have been 1.4 yards per rush play, 1.3 yards per pass play and 1.4 yards per play better than average offensively in 2014, which is good enough to move the ball against a Florida State stop unit that is 0.4 yards per play better than average (5.1 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yards per play).

North Carolina Offense vs. Florida State Defense:

  • +1.0 yards per rush play advantage
  • +0.9 yards per pass play advantage
  • +1.0 yards per play advantage overall

The Wolfpack are coming off three straight wins where they scored 46, 49 and 42 points, respectively, which is significant in that home underdogs off two consecutive wins are 23-5 ATS since 1980 provided they scored 40 or more points in each of their last three games.  Meanwhile, Florida State has only won the stats by 12 yards per game this season (148 yards per game for North Carolina State), and the Wolfpack actually have an advantage from the line of scrimmage when the Seminoles have the ball.

Specifically, Florida State has been 0.6 yards per play better than average offensively this season (6.3 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yards per play), but the Wolfpack have been 0.7 yards per play better than average defensively (5.0 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yards per play).

North Carolina Defense vs. Florida State Offense:

  • +1.7 yards per rush play advantage
  • -0.9 yards per pass play disadvantage
  • +0.1 yards per play advantage overall

Technical Analysis:

Double-digit home underdogs off a shutout win are 16-6 ATS versus teams off a win, and the Wolfpack are 5-0 ATS as home underdogs of nine or more points, 10-1 SU when playing with conference revenge and 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings with Florida State.  The home team is 7-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in this series, including winning the last five, and the Wolfpack are brimming with confidence after starting the season 4-0 for the first time since 2010.  Grab the generous points with North Carolina State and invest with confidence.

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