ESPN’s Big Monday Betting Preview: Iowa State at Kansas

Feb 2, 2015


The Jayhawks are 10-0 SU and 6-3 ATS at home this season where they are averaging 78.3 points per game on 47.3% shooting from the field and 40.1% from beyond the arc.  Overall, Kansas is 10.4 points per game better than average offensively (71.8 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 61.4 points per game), which is good enough to have success against a pedestrian Iowa State defense that is 0.6 points per game better than average (68.5 points per game to teams that would combine to average 69.1 points per game).

The Cyclones’ defensive intensity has steadily declined this season as they are allowing 73.6 points per game in conference play and 76.4 points over the last five games (40.6% 3-PT).  Iowa State’s lack of perimeter defense will be exploited by an outstanding Kansas attack that is shooting nearly 40% from three-point territory.  In fact, Kansas leads the Big 12 Conference in three-point field goal percentage and owns a +7.6 scoring margin.

I also like the fact that the Jayhawks have outrebounded six of their last seven opponents and own a +5.9 rebound margin.  Kansas forward Perry Ellis, the team’s leading scoring with 12.8 points per game, also averages a team-best 6.8 rebounds per game.  In the sixteen games in which the Jayhawks have outrebounded their opponent, they boast a 16-1 record.

The development of freshman guard Kelly Oubre, Jr. has also been impressive as he has pulled down nine or more rebounds in four games this season, including nine against Kansas State on January 31. The Jayhawks’ depth has also been a key component to their success in conference play as their bench has outscored the opponent’s bench 111-28 over the last four games (31-7 vs. Oklahoma; 31-8 at Texas; 35-4 at TCU; and 14-9 vs. Kansas State).

Kansas also takes the floor with a very good defense that is allowing 64.2 points per game on 39.8% shooting from the field to teams that would combine to average 69.3 points per game.  More importantly, the Jayhawks are limiting conference foes to just 63.7 points per game (36.7% FG) and have only yielded 62.2 points per game at home (39.2% FG).

Speaking of home, Kansas is currently riding a 19-game winning streak in Allen Fieldhouse and is 49-9 in Lawrence versus Iowa State.  The Jayhawks have won the last nine meetings with Iowa State in Allen Fieldhouse, while Kansas head coach Bill Self is 21-5 all-time against the Cyclones.  Let’s also note that Kansas is 53-17 all-time in ESPN’s Big Monday games since 1996, including going 30-1 at home and 34-9 under coach Self.

From a macro standpoint, Kansas is a remarkable 723-109 (.869) all-time within the friendly confines of Allen Fieldhouse, including 185-9 (.954) under coach Self and 127-3 (.977) over its last 130 games! From a point spread perspective, Kansas is 10-1 ATS versus teams with a win percentage between .600 and .800, 16-5 ATS home versus conference opponents and 8-0 ATS at home after failing to cover the Vegas number in two of its last three games.

With Kansas standing at 5-0-1 ATS in its last six home games, 7-2 ATS in its last nine games versus .601 or better opposition and 7-2-1 ATS in its last ten games overall, lay the points with the Jayhawks on ESPN’s Big Monday telecast and invest with confidence.