Indiana has lost back-to-back games to Michigan State (42-28) and Michigan (63-47), but the Hoosiers still have a legitimate chance of going bowling this season. Indiana’s season hangs in the balance this afternoon against a surging Minnesota squad that is consecutive upset wins over Northwestern (20-17) and Nebraska (34-23). The experts at Pro Edge have analyzed this game and believe the Hoosiers are the way to go as the home team is 7-1 SU and ATS in this series, while the Gophers are 3-6 ATS as conference road underdogs under head coach Jerry Kill.
Indiana’s Explosive Offense:
- Indiana is averaging 42.4 points per game this season at 4.7 yards per rush play, 8.5 yards per pass attempt and 514 total yards (6.7 yards per play; 12.1 yards per point);
- Overall, the Hoosiers are 0.7 yards per rush play, 1.9 yards per pass play and 1.5 yards per play better than average offensively in 2013.
Meanwhile, Minnesota arrives in town with a pedestrian defense that is just 0.1 yards per play better than average (5.6 yards per play to teams that combine to average 5.7 yards per play). Based on the numbers from the line of scrimmage, Indiana possesses a huge 1.4 yards per play advantage offensively over the Gophers’ stop unit.
Indiana’s Atrocious Defense:
- The Hoosiers are yielding 37.1 points per game on 498 total yards, which is certainly a concern for Indiana backers. Overall, Indiana is 0.2 yards per rush play, 0.3 yards per pass attempt and 0.3 yards per play worse than average defensively this season.
The Gophers do not possess an offense that can take advantage of Indiana’s porous stop unit. Indeed, Minnesota is 0.4 yards per play worse than average offensively (5.4 yards per play to teams that combine to allow 5.8 yards per play), which actually gives the Hoosiers a 0.1 yards per play advantage on the defensive side of the ball. Overall (i.e. offense + defense combined), Indiana is 1.2 yards per play better than average, whereas the Gophers are 0.3 yards per play worse than average from the line of scrimmage.
With Minnesota 1-9 ATS as road underdogs of 7.5 to 10 points and the Hoosiers 6-0 ATS at home following a loss, we recommend a solid investment on the home favorite this afternoon.