The Dodgers Look to Improve to 20-4 in Greinke’s L/24 Home Starts

Jul 30, 2014

LAD 2014

Atlanta is one of the most offensively-challenged teams in the National League (.668 road OPS), which is excellent news for Los Angeles investors as the Dodgers are an incredible 32-6 (+24.4 units) versus teams with a batting average of .265 or worse and 48-19 (+25.3 units) versus teams averaging 4.3 runs or less per game on the season. Similarly, Los Angeles right-hander Zack Greinke is a profitable 25-6 (+16.8 units) at home versus teams batting .255 or worse, 21-3 (+16.5 units) at home versus teams with an on base percentage of .315 or worse and 44-16 (+21.0 units) at home versus teams who strike out seven or more times per game. Greinke remains one of the best pitchers in baseball based upon his performance this season:

Zack Greinke’s Peripheral Numbers:

  • 2.74 ERA & 1.17 WHIP in 2014
  • 2.73 ERA & 1.00 WHIP at home
  • 2.39 ERA & 1.17 WHIP at night

Even better news for Los Angeles bettors is the fact that Greinke’s surface statistics are fully supported by advanced analytics:

Zack Greinke’s Underlying Metrics:

  • 2.37 xFIP & 2.81 SIERA in 2014
  • 2.19 xFIP & 2.96 FIP at home
  • 2.77 xFIP & 2.37 FIP in July
  • 2.66 xFIP & 2.91 FIP in the first half

I expect Greinke to improve upon those numbers against an anemic Atlanta offense that is averaging 3.9 runs per game this season, including 3.8 runs per game on the road and 3.7 runs per game at night. In contrast, the Dodgers’ offense is surging as they are batting .290 with a .344 on base percentage over the last ten days (5.4 runs per game). “That’s what we envision offensively,” Los Angeles manager Don Mattingly said. “We got contributions from all over.” The Dodgers will certainly have their work cut out for them against Atlanta southpaw Alex Wood, who is 4-7 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in thirteen starts this season.

However, Wood toes the rubber in poor form with a 4.96 ERA and 1.47 WHIP over his last three outings, including yielding ten runs on 20 hits in 16 1/3-innings of work. Wood’s advanced metrics are also trending in the wrong direction: 4.02 xFIP & 3.56 FIP in July and a 3.65 xFIP & 3.52 FIP on the road. For those who like additional technical support, consider the following:

  • The Braves are 14-37 in their L/51 games as underdogs of +151 to +200;
  • The Braves are 3-7 in Wood’s L/10 starts & 1-7 in Wood’s L/8 starts on limited rest;
  • The Dodgers are 8-2 in their L/10 games versus left-handed starters;
  • The Dodgers are 20-7 in their L/27 games as favorites;
  • The Dodgers are 19-4 in Greinke’s L/23 home starts;
  • The Dodgers are 6-0 in Greinke’s L/6 starts vs. teams with a winning record

Take Los Angeles behind one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball and invest with confidence.