The technical analysis in this game strongly favors Los Angeles as the Dodgers are 16-5 in their last 21 home games, 37-18 in their last 55 during game 3 of a series and 7-0 in their last seven games versus National League East foes. The Dodgers have also dominated this series, posting a 36-15 record in their last 51 home games versus Washington (4-0 L/4).
Los Angeles 19-year-old phenom Julio Urias takes the mound in excellent form with a 1.88 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over his last three starts. In two home starts, Urias has compiled a 1.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, and he also owns a 3.94 FIP, 3.01 xFIP and 3.25 SIERA overall this season.
The sample size is too small to draw many conclusions, but the teenager boasts a 29.9% K% and 21.6% K-BB%. Urias has also been hampered by an unsustainable .375 BABIP so inevitable regression in that department will improve his surface numbers.
Los Angeles relievers have been outstanding this season, posting a 3.01 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 227 innings, including a 2.40 ERA and 0.94 WHIP at home, a 2.63 ERA and 0.95 WHIP at night and a 2.80 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over the last seven games.
In contrast, Washington’s bullpen has really struggled recently as evidenced by its 5.89 ERA and 1.74 WHIP over the last ten days. Washington starter Joe Ross has yielded a combined 11 earned runs on 15 hits in his last three outings, a span covering just 17 innings (5.82 ERA & 1.23 WHIP).
A gradual decline is Ross’ peripherals has also been evident: 2.95 FIP in April; 3.75 FIP in May; and a 4.42 FIP in June. His walk and home runs rates have also increased over the last six weeks so Ross seems to be trending in the wrong direction. In his lone start against the Dodgers last August, Ross allowed 5 earned runs in just 4 2/3 innings of work.
Finally, Los Angeles falls into a very good 81-28 system that has generated +47.6 net units of profit since 1997. The idea is to invest on certain home favorites with a starting pitcher who is winless on the season after 5+ starts, provided he is supported by a good bullpen.
Take the surging Dodgers, winners of 7 straight, and invest with confidence.