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Davidson Could Make Some Noise in the National Invitation Tournament

Davidson is more than capable of making a serious run in the National Invitation Tournament as the Wildcats are 10-2 ATS on the road this season where they are averaging 80.3 points per game on 48.0% shooting from the field and 38.2% from beyond the arc.  Overall, Davidson is averaging 78.6 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 70.7 points per game, thereby making the Wildcats 7.9 points per game better than average offensively this season.   I also like the fact that Davidson enters postseason play in excellent form as the Wildcats are averaging 79.6 points on 51.0% shooting from the floor and 40.4% from three-point territory over their last five games.

Meanwhile, Missouri is allowing 69.5 points per game to teams that would combine to average 70.8 points per game, thereby making the Tigers a nominal 1.3 points per game better than average offensively.  Davidson will take the floor possessing a solid 6.6 points per game advantage offensively over the Tigers’ pedestrian stop unit.  The overriding concern for Davidson backers is the fact that coach Bob McKillop’s squad is yielding 79.1 points per game on the road this season and are 2.6 points per game worse than average defensively overall (72.5 points per game to teams that would combine to average 69.9 points per game).  However, those numbers need to be qualified by the fact that the Wildcats have limited opponents to a mere 63.4 points per game (41.9% FG; 28.8% 3-PT) over its last five games.

In contrast, Missouri’s attack, which is 5.1 points per game better than average, has really struggled in its last five games over which time the Tigers are averaging just 65.4 points. Based on the current state of both teams, I do not give Missouri much of an advantage offensively over the Wildcats’ defense.  Another aspect that I really like about the Wildcats is their resiliency as they are 31-14 ATS following a conference loss, including 15-5 ATS off an upset loss and 11-2 ATS off a close loss by three points or less.  I also like the fact that Davidson is 73-40 ATS versus teams with a winning record, including 45-21 ATS against elite opposition with a win percentage between .600 and .800. Conversely, Missouri is a money-burning 8-19 ATS versus teams with a winning record, including 3-13 ATS versus foes with a win percentage between .600 and .800.  Grab the generous points with the live underdog and invest with confidence.

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