Daily Sports Picks for February 7: Duquesne Could Upset Flyers

Feb 7, 2018

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Duquesne is more than capable of pulling off the road upset against the Flyers as the Dukes have already knocked off San Francisco (67-65), Dayton (70-62), George Washington twice (69-52 & 75-73) and Fordham (64-41) as underdogs.

The Dukes’ solid underdog history makes them a strong selection as one of Oskeim Sports’ daily sports picks for Wednesday, February 7.

Duquesne is 4-1 ATS in its last five conference affairs and 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a loss, which provides us with solid technical support for making the Dukes one of our daily sports picks for Wednesday.

Let’s also note that Dayton is a money-burning 0-5 ATS in its last five games and has lost four of its last 5 conference tilts straight-up.  The Flyers have suffered upset losses to Duquesne (70-62; 3.5-point favorites) and  Massachusetts twice (62-60; 86-82; 8-point & 2.5-point favorites, respectively) this season so they are certainly vulnerable when laying points.

Duquesne is above-average at both ends of the court, rating 0.8 points per game better than average offensively (73.6 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 72.8 points per game to a mediocre attack) and 2.4 points per game better than average defensively (67.3 points per game to teams that would combine to average 69.7 points per game against a mediocre defense).

The Dukes are ranked 93rd in the nation in rebound margin (3.0) and possess a significant advantage under the glass against a weak-rebounding Dayton squad that is ranked 334th in the country in total rebounds per game (31.77).

In fact, Duquesne is ranked 73rd-nationally in total rebounds per game (38.04), 31st in total blocks (115) and 36th in blocked shots per game (4.8). Dayton is nowhere close to those figures on a national scale and will struggle to get second-chance points off the glass tonight.

The Dukes take the floor in excellent form, averaging 76.4 points on 46.8% shooting from the field and 40.2% from beyond the arc over their last five games.  That production should continue against a declining Dayton stop unit that has allowed 78.8 points on 47.5% shooting from the floor and 42.4% from three-point territory over its last five affairs.

Finally, Duquesne applies to a very good 32-9 ATS (78%) system that invests against certain college basketball favorites that have gone ‘over’ the total in 4+ consecutive games, provided they are matched up against an opponent that has landed ‘under’ the posted total in each of their previous five games.

Take Duquesne plus the points (Oskeim Sports’ math model only favors Dayton by 5.67 points) as one of Oskeim’s daily sports picks for Wednesday, February 7.

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Oskeim Sports will also take the Richmond Spiders as one of its daily sports picks for Wednesday, February 7.  Prior to Saturday’s loss to George Mason, the Spiders were one of the hottest teams in the country.

Indeed, Richmond has won and covered five straight, including upsets over Virginia Commonwealth (67-52), LaSalle (81-74), Duquesne (77-73) and Davidson (66-63), with three of those wins coming on the road.

Richmond’s loss to George Mason was expected after second-leading scorer, guard De’Monte Buckingham, did not play due to a violation of team rules. Buckingham is averaging 12.6 points and 7.2 rebounds per game this season and has been upgraded to ‘probable’ for tonight’s game against VCU.

Growing pains were anticipated for Chris Mooney’s squad in 2017-18 as 77 percent of the Spiders’ points have been scored by freshmen and sophomores, which is the 15th-highest rate of scoring from freshmen or sophomores in the country.

This season also marked the first time Richmond entered the regular season without a senior in its starting lineup since 1999-2000.  Indeed, Richmond only has two players on its roster who are in their final year of eligibility!

The graduation of T.J. Cline and ShawnDre’ Jones, the 8th and 10th leading scorers in program history, respectively, left a significant void for Mooney to fill.

However, after playing the 19th-most difficult non-conference schedule according to RPI (2-10 record), the Spiders have found their footing and look to sweep the season-series against VCU.

In their previous meeting, Richmond held VCU to 52 points and 34 percent shooting from the field, both season lows for the Rams and the fewest points scored in a conference game by the Rams since they joined the Atlantic-10 Conference in 2012.

Take Richmond as one of Oskeim Sports’ daily sports picks for Wednesday, February 7.

Daily Sports Picks for Wednesday, February 7:

  • Duquesne (+8) (-110) over Dayton
  • Richmond (+1.5) (-105) over VCU