Daily Sports Picks: Mets, Rockies Clash at Coors Field

Jun 20, 2018

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On Wednesday, June 20, Oskeim Sports previews the baseball game between the New York Mets and Colorado Rockies.  Oskeim recommends taking the Mets as one of his daily sports picks for tonight.  Oskeim also suggests taking a look at the Minnesota Twins as one of his free daily sports picks on Wednesday.

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Colorado right-hander Chad Bettis is unbettable in Colorado’s altitude where he owns a 7.76 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and 5.87 FIP in 31.1 innings of work this season. Bettis also owns a 2.30 HR/9 rate and a 34.0% hard contact rate inside Coors Field, together with a 25.5% line drive rate.

The 29-year-old has posted an 8.05 FIP and a 4.11 HR/9 rate across 15.1 innings this month. In fact, Bettis has given up 15 runs over that span!

Meanwhile, Colorado’s bullpen enters tonight’s affair with a 5.13 ERA (2nd-worst), 4.33 FIP (10th-worst), 1.27 HR/9 rate (7th-worst) and a 3.55 BB/9 rate (8th-worst). Colorado is 1-8 in its last nine games versus right-handed starters, 1-8 in its last nine home games, 0-6 in its last six contests during game 3 of a series and 3-9 in the last twelve games overall.

In contrast, the Mets are a profitable 13-2 in Seth Lugo’s last fifteen starts versus teams with a losing record and 8-2 in Lugo’s previous ten road outings against .499 or worse opposition.

Lugo’s success this season is based, in part, on the increased use of his curveball. Lugo is throwing his curve 31.2% of the time this season compared to just 16.6% and 17.4% in each of the previous two seasons.

The former 34th-round pick has the right-handed version of the Rich Hill curveball. Lugo ranks 41st in vertical movement on his curveball (-8.29 inches), while Hill ranks 48th (-8.13).

Hill ranks third in horizontal movement on the pitch (10.65 inches) and Lugo ranks 38th (7.3). Hill ranks third in the majors with an average curveball height at the plate of 2.4 feet. Lugo ranks 21st this season with an average z-height at the plate of 2.11 feet.

Amongst all pitchers to have thrown at least 50 fastballs this season, Lugo ranks 47th in whiff-per-swing percentage (29.9%). His fastball spin rate has averaged 2,270 rpms since 2015, slightly above the major-league average.

Opponents are batting just .111 against Lugo’s four-seam fastball with a .133 slugging mark this year (.183 average and .307 slugging mark for his career).

Lugo toes the rubber tonight with a 2.49 ERA, 2.96 FIP and 3.03 xFIP in 50.2 innings, together with a 22.2% K-BB% and a 46.5% groundball rate.  Take the Mets behind the vastly superior pitcher and bullpen as one of Oskeim Sports’ daily sports picks for Wednesday, June 20.

Note on the Game’s Total: Seth Lugo throws his sinker 26.1% of the time, which is a problem in Colorado’s altitude.  The thin air tends to flatten out sinkers and curves.  I lean with the OVER 11.5 runs in this game.

Oskeim Sports’ Daily Sports Picks for Wednesday, June 20:

  • New York Mets (+102) over Colorado Rockies
  • Minnesota Twins (+137) over Boston Red Sox

Please come back tomorrow for more daily sports picks from the #1 documented handicapping service in the industry!