Daily Sports Picks: Betting Capsules for Saturday’s College Football Slate

Oct 5, 2018

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Oskeim Sports previews several college football games on Saturday, October 6 and provides daily sports picks in certain matchups.  Be sure to visit Oskeim’s blog on a regular basis for daily sports picks in all major sporting events.

Alabama at Arkansas (-35.5)

Reports indicate that Alabama had its worst week of practice yet and my math model shows value on the large home underdog in this game.  Arkansas is 193-82-2 SU at home since 1977 with only three losses by more than 36 points.

Let’s also note that college football double-digit home underdogs are 8-0 ATS versus undefeated opposition if they covered the point spread in their previous affair.  Arkansas is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 home games versus teams with a winning road record and has held its last three opponents to season-low yardage.

I like Arkansas plus the points on Saturday.

Texas vs. Oklahoma (-7.5)

Texas head coach Tom Herman is 11-1 ATS as an underdog (with 8 outright wins), including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS when taking the field with a winning record.  Herman is also 15-3 ATS as an underdog or favored by seven points or less.

The Longhorns are 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings in this series and stand at 9-3-1 ATS against Oklahoma since 2005.  Interestingly, the Sooners have been favored by an average of 13.2 points in the past five clashes but have failed to cover the Vegas number by an average of 14.8 points per game.

Finally, the last four meetings in this rivalry have been decided by seven points or less.  With Texas standing at 10-2-1 ATS in Game Six, including 6-1 ATS as an underdog of 9.5 points or less, I like the Longhorns plus the points on Saturday.

Notre Dame (-7) at Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech is 48-3 SU in its last 51 non-conference home games with only one loss by more than seven points.  The Hokies are a profitable 13-4-1 ATS in their last eighteen games as home underdogs, whereas Notre Dame is 0-3 ATS with two outright losses as road favorites against ranked opponents under head coach Brian Kelly.

Notre Dame suffered a big loss in offensive lineman Alex Bars, who will miss the rest of the season after sustaining a knee injury in last Saturday’s win over Stanford.  Bars is a fifth-year senior and a team captain who started 27 games during the past three seasons.

“It’s devastating for us,” Kelly said of Bars injury.  Virginia Tech ranks 11th in the nation in defensive havoc, including 12th on the defensive line.  I like the Hokies plus the points in this game.

Oskeim Sports’ Daily Sports Picks for October 6:

  • Arkansas (+35.5) over Alabama
  • Texas (+7.5) over Oklahoma
  • Virginia Tech (+7) over Notre Dame

Please come back tomorrow for more daily sports picks in both college football and the NFL!