Free Pick for Thursday, June 8: San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks

Jun 8, 2017

free pick, best free pick, daily free pick, winning free pick, quality free pick

Arizona is 23-8 at home this season where it’s averaging 6.2 runs per game (.356 OBP; .848 OPS).  In contrast, the Padres are 10-21 on the road this season where they are averaging just 3.7 runs per game (.284 OBP; .668 OPS).

San Diego is also 5-10 versus left-handed starters against whom they are averaging 3.0 runs per game and 7-12 in afternoon affairs wherein they are averaging 3.0 runs per game.

Arizona southpaw Pat Corbin has excelled at home this season where he is 4-1 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in seven starts.  While Corbin owns a 9.00 ERA and 6.62 FIP on the road, he has decent peripherals at Chase Field: 4.22 FIP and a 48.9% ground ball rate.

Corbin is 4-4 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in eight career starts against the Padres, including limiting San Diego to three runs or less in both outings this season (combined 13.0 innings).

I also like the fact that Arizona is 6-0 in Corbin’s last six home starts and 4-1 in his last five starts versus teams with a losing record.  The Padres are a money-burning 1-4 in Clayton Richard’s last five road starts and 1-4 in Richard’s last five starts with five days of rest.

San Diego has lost five of the last six meetings in this series and is 1-8 in its last nine trips to Arizona.  The Padres are 0-6 in their last six games versus left-handed starters, 7-19 in their last 26 games versus .501 or greater opposition, 21-50 in their last 71 road games, 32-66 in game 3 of a series and 2-10 in their last twelve road affairs versus foes with a home win percentage of .601 or greater.

Finally, San Diego’s bullpen enters today’s game with a 4.35 ERA, 4.21 FIP and a 4.24 xFIP across 206.2 innings.  The Diamondbacks’ relief staff has garnered a 3.72 ERA, 3.77 FIP and a 3.72 xFIP in 2017, including inducing ground balls 49.2% of the time.

At a very reasonable price, take the Diamondbacks to improve to 24-8 at home as Oskeim Sports’ Free Pick for Thursday, June 8.

Oskeim Sports’ Free Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks (-136)