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Finding Value in College Football Win Totals

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The plan is for the 2020 college football season to kick off as scheduled. The whole coronavirus mess has put some schools’ summer plans on hold. Teams should be back to involuntary workouts in July with training camps set for August.

Bettors looking at the futures boards early can take a glance at the win totals and find a couple of wagers worth making. Here are a few.

Ohio State Over 11

Since Urban Meyer took over the Buckeyes college football program in 2012, Ohio State’s win totals by year have been as follows: 12, 12, 14, 12, 11, 12, 13, and 13. Just once in the past eight seasons have the Buckeyes failed to win more than 11 games. They won 13 in each of the past two seasons.

Yes, the bet is priced at -135, but is there a surer bet? Ohio State faces two tough opponents on the road – Oregon and Penn State. The Buckeyes get Iowa at home and have the annual battle with Michigan at the Horseshoe as well.

You can count eight wins just glancing at the schedule. Big wins over Iowa and Michigan – Ohio State has beaten the Wolverines in eight straight – and a berth in the Big Ten Conference championship will ensure the Buckeyes win over 11 games in 2020.

Aggies Have Potential

When Texas A&M hired Jimbo Fisher, more than 17 wins in two seasons was probably what was envisioned. In Year 3, Fisher just might be able to turn the corner. He’ll have arguably one of the better quarterbacks in college football in Kellen Mond.

Fisher’s last two recruiting classes have been outstanding and the defense will have a few potential NFL draft picks. That is what makes the Aggies an interesting prospect to go over the projected 9.5 win total.

If Fisher’s team wins every game it is supposed to, they go 9-3. The big question is whether or not you believe the Aggies can beat one or more of Auburn, Alabama, and LSU. At +135 to go over, it might be a risk worth taking.

Flying High

Last year, Air Force finished 11-2. They return nine starters from a year ago. The most important is quarterback Donald Hammond III who led an offense that averaged 34.1 points per game. The Falcons have a potential All-American (Nolan Laufenberg) on their offensive line and return a defense that was seventh in the country against the run last year.

The schedule is a challenge because Air Force takes on perennial Mountain West Conference power Boise State in Week 2. Then, the Falcons travel to Purdue the following week. The question is of the remaining 10 games, can Air Force win nine?

The program’s projected 2020 win total is 8.5. The Falcons only conference loss last season was to Boise State. At +130 to win nine or more, Air Force is a strong value.

Can LSU Reload?

It’s pretty easy to just cast aside LSU as last year’s national champion and say they will not be back in 2020. Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Joe Burrow is gone. A total of 14 Tigers were taken in the 2020 NFL Draft.

Plus, head coach Ed Orgeron had to replace an offensive coordinator (Joe Brady) and a defensive coordinator (Dave Aranda). Can LSU really overcome all that?

The simple answer is yes. Orgeron’s recruiting classes rival the best in the nation. He continues to bring in 4- and 5-star talent. He’ll have one of those step in for Burrow at quarterback – Myles Brennan.

The new quarterback will have last year’s Biletnikoff Award winner Ja’Marr Chase to throw to as well as a number of other talented receivers and running backs.

The Tigers’ college football win total is set at nine with the odds to go over +110. LSU faces UTSA, Rice, and Nicholls in nonconference games. They have a tough early one with Texas and crossover to play Florida in SEC play. The game against the Gators is in Gainesville.

Still, you have to like Orgeron’s chances when the college football world will be looking for Alabama to take control of the SEC again. Regardless of whether or not they win the SEC, the Tigers can find a way to win at least nine and more likely ten games in 2020.

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