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College Football Upset Alert: Colorado Buffaloes over Arizona

Arizona should not be laying 14+ points on the road to anyone, especially to an improved Colorado squad that needs a win today to bolster its hopes of bowl eligibility.  Colorado is 2-1 SU and ATS at home this season where the Buffaloes are averaging an impressive 32.3 points per game, including 9.0 yards per pass attempt and 405 total yards (6.3 yards per play; 12.5 yards per point).  Overall, the Buffaloes are a mediocre team from the line of scrimmage as they are 0.2 yards per play below average offensively and 0.3 yards per play better than average defensively (5.6 yards per play to teams that combine to average 5.9 yards per play).  Based on those metrics, Colorado is 0.1 yards per play better than average overall from the line of scrimmage in 2013.

Arizona is one of the most overrated 4-2 teams in college football as the Wildcats are only slightly above-average from the line of scrimmage.  Specifically, Arizona is averaging a pedestrian 5.7 yards per play offensively against a group of teams that combine to allow 5.7 yards per play to a mediocre offensive squad.  The Wildcats’ attack is one-dimensional in that they are averaging just 5.9 yards per pass attempt against teams that combine to allow 6.7 yards per pass attempt, thereby making Arizona’s aerial attack 0.8 yards per pass play worse than average this season.  Even more concerning is the fact that Arizona is averaging a mere 5.5 yards per pass attempt on the road, which is woefully inadequate regardless of what level of collegiate football you are playing.

Colorado Defense vs. Arizona Offense

  • -0.3 yards per rush play disadvantage
  • +0.9 yards per pass attempt advantage
  • +0.3 yards per play advantage overall

The disparate strength of schedule played by both of these teams is also alarming.  Colorado has faced the likes of Oregon State, Oregon and Arizona State, whereas the Wildcats have puffed their record with games against Northern Arizona, UNLV and UT-San Antonio.  From a technical standpoint, Arizona head coach Rich Rodriguez is 13-17 SU and 8-20-2 ATS versus conference opponents off a double-digit win, including 2-16-2 ATS in his last twenty attempts.  Rodriguez is also 3-14 ATS as a favorite versus a conference opponent off a double-digit loss in its previous conference game, including 0-9 ATS if his team is off a win.  Meanwhile, Arizona is 2-9 ATS in the first of back-to-back road games, 9-22 ATS as a favorite between 10.5 and 21 points and 3-8-1 ATS as a road favorite over the last five years.  Take the live home underdog and invest with confidence.

Back To Boulder Homecoming: Saturday’s game with the Arizona Wildcats is Colorado’s annual Back To Boulder Homecoming Game and the Buffaloes are encouraging fans to Blackout Breast Cancer.  The game has been slated as the Breast Cancer Awareness game for a while and when the Pac-12 Networks selected the game with a 6 p.m. start time, the Buffaloes decided to designate the game Blackout Breast Cancer and fans are encouraged to wear black and pink to the game.

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