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College Football Preview: Oregon at Stanford

We’re not sure if there is a more underrated team than Stanford as the 7-1 Cardinal continue to compile wins in a very workmanlike manner.  Stanford owns impressive wins over Arizona State (42-28), Washington (31-28), UCLA (24-10) and Oregon State (20-12), and the experts at Pro Edge Sports believe the Cardinal possess the talent to compete with Oregon on Thursday.

Line of Scrimmage Breakdown – Stanford Cardinal

  • Stanford is averaging 32.6 points per game at 5.0 yards per rush play, 8.4 yards per pass attempt, 6.2 yards per play and 12.0 yards per point.  Overall, the Cardinal are 0.7 yards per rush play, 1.3 yards per pass play, 0.6 yards per play and 2.6 yards per point better than average offensively in 2013;
  • The Cardinal are limiting opponents to 19.4 points per game at 3.3 yards per rush play, 5.7 yards per pass attempt and 4.7 yards per play.  Overall, Stanford is 1.2 yards per rush play, 2.0 yards per pass play and 1.4 yards per play better than average defensively.

Based on the fundamental analysis from the line of scrimmage, Stanford is 2.0 yards per play better than average this season, which begs the question why the Cardinal are getting double-digits at home Thursday night.  Well, the answer lies in their opponent – Oregon – who continues to steamroll its way to an undefeated season.  Let’s take a look at how Oregon matches up with Stanford on both sides of the ball:

Line of Scrimmage Breakdown – Oregon Ducks

  • Oregon is an incredible 1.8 yards per rush play, 2.5 yards per pass attempt and 2.0 yards per play better than average offensively;
  • The Ducks are also 0.7 yards per rush play, 1.3 yards per pass play and 1.0 yards per play better than average defensively this season.

What does all of this mean?  Based strictly from the line of scrimmage, the Ducks maintain an advantage on both sides of the ball:

  • +0.6 yards per play advantage offensively
  • +0.4 yards per play advantage defensively

The numbers above simply do not justify making Oregon a 10.5-point road underdog. Stanford’s underrated status is best illustrated by the fact that the Cardinal are 23-11 ATS over the last three seasons, including 20-7 ATS off one or more consecutive wins and 15-5 ATS after covering the point spread in one or more consecutive games.  We like Stanford in this game and would not be surprised if the Cardinal won the game outright.