College Football Betting Preview & Sharp Money Plays

Sep 27, 2014


Despite having one of the worst head coaches in college football, the Cornhuskers are playing like a legitimate Top 20 team through the first four weeks of the 2014 campaign.  I also like what I’ve been hearing out of Nebraska’s locker room as the players are cognizant of previous seasons where the team has suffered some inexplicable losses.  “Any given week, anything can happen,” running back Ameer Abdullah said.  “We have had good years where we have lost to some teams that we probably should’ve beat and some weeks where we beat a good team that we weren’t as talented as.  Don’t believe the hype, don’t buy in to anything you hear. Don’t think that just because things are going well for you now that you can’t hit rock bottom at any point.”

Nebraska takes the field with an explosive offense that is averaging 45.5 points per game on 7.1 yards per rush play, 9.0 yards per pass play and 7.7 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow just 4.9 yards per rush attempt, 8.2 yards per pass attempt and 6.3 yards per play.  The offense is led by star running back Aneer Abdullah, who has garnered an impressive 625 yards at 6.8 yards per carry. Quarterback Tommy Armstrong, who has been 2.5 yards per pass attempt better than average this season, also presents a threat on the ground with an average of 9.1 yards per run.

Nebraska Offense vs. Illinois Defense:

  • +1.6 yards per rush play advantage
  • +2.0 yards per pass play advantage
  • +0.7 yards per play advantage overall

Nebraska also possesses an underrated defense that is 0.4 yards per rush play, 1.2 yards per pass play and 0.8 yards per play better than average, which is good enough to limit an Illini attack that is 0.5 yards per play better than average (6.4 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yards per play).  From a technical standpoint, Nebraska is a profitable 20-8 ATS at home versus teams with a win percentage of .751 or greater, whereas the Illini are a money-burning 1-8 ATS as underdogs, 1-9 ATS on the road, 1-5 ATS as conference underdogs of 14 or more points and 51-78 ATS in the first half of the season.  Finally, Illinois has not won at Nebraska since 1924 – lay the points with the Cornhuskers in college football today and invest with confidence

Sharp Money College Football Plays:

Please find below several teams that the professional bettors have been favoring all week:

  • Western Michigan +
  • Syracuse +
  • North Carolina State +
  • Purdue +
  • Idaho +
  • Utah –
  • Nebraska –
  • Miami Florida –
  • Temple –
  • San Diego State –