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NCAA Football Betting Preview & Free Sports Pick: Auburn at Georgia

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Auburn’s luck finally ran out last week with its improbable 41-38 loss to Texas A&M and, with that defeat, the Tigers’ National Title hopes went up in flames. Meanwhile, Georgia is quietly dismantling its competition with double-digit wins over Clemson (45-21), Vanderbilt (44-17), Missouri (34-0), Arkansas (45-32) and Kentucky (63-31), and the Bulldogs welcome back star running back Todd Gurley from his four-game suspension.

“There’s no doubt that he’s an electric player and the best at what he does,” center David Andrews said.  “I can’t wait to look up and see that No. 3 running down the field.  I’m ready to go out there and play with him.”  Georgia possesses an explosive offense that is averaging 43.0 point per game on 453 yards at 6.8 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow just 5.4 yards per play to a mediocre offensive squad.  The Bulldogs are also a perfect 4-0 at home this season where they are averaging 47.5 points per game on 472 yards at 7.2 yards per play and 9.9 yards per point.

Overall, Georgia’s offense is 1.9 yards per rush play, 1.0 yards per pass play and 1.4 yards per play better than average, which is certainly good enough to exploit a decent Auburn stop unit that is 0.7 yards per play better than average (5.5 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 6.2 yards per play).

Georgia Offense vs. Auburn Defense:

  • +0.9 yards per rush play advantage
  • +0.3 yards per pass play advantage
  • +0.7 yards per play advantage overall from line of scrimmage

Georgia also takes the field with a solid defense that is 0.5 yards per play better than average this season (4.9 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yards per play).  More importantly, the Bulldogs are limiting opponents to just 17.5 points per game at home on 307 yards at 4.4 yards per play.  Georgia’s front seven have been extremely impressive at home where they are yielding 99 rushing yards per game at 2.8 yards per carry.

Meanwhile, Auburn’s offense has not been as efficient on the road where the Tigers are averaging 5.9 yards per play as compared to 7.0 yards per play overall in 2014. Overall, Auburn is 1.6 yards per play better than average offensively (7.0 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yards per play), which gives the Tigers a 1.2 yards per play advantage over Georgia’s stop unit.  However, that projection does not take into account the home/road dichotomy of both teams (Georgia’s defense at home vs. Auburn’s offense on the road).

From a technical standpoint, Auburn falls into a very negative 7-48-2 ATS road letdown situation of mine that is predicated upon the Tigers’ playoff-busting loss to Texas A&M, whereas the Bulldogs fall into a strong 41-6-1 ATS home momentum situation.  Georgia also applies to a very good 13-1 ATS revenge angle that is based upon the Bulldogs’ heartbreaking loss to Auburn last year.

Let’s also note that Auburn has lost three straight in Athens by an average of 23 points per game, while the series host is 6-1 ATS.  Lay the points with the avenging Bulldogs as Oskeim’s free sports pick and invest with confidence.

Free Sports Pick: Georgia (-2.5) (-110)

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