College Football Betting Preview & Free Picks – Week 12

Nov 18, 2023

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Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ College Football Betting preview!  Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Saturday’s games.  Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!

Rutgers (+20.5) (-110) at Penn State

Report: Penn State enters off a disheartening 24-15 loss to Michigan, dropping the Nittany Lions to a combined 4-16 SU against Ohio State and Michigan under head coach James Franklin. Penn State is just 10-24 ATS following a loss under Franklin, including failing to cover the spread against Indiana (33-24) after its loss to Ohio State earlier this season. Penn State is 1-9-1 ATS as a conference home favorite of fifteen or more points and 2-10 ATS off a loss versus opponents off a loss. In contrast, Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano is 12-6-2 ATS in road affairs, including 3-0-2 ATS versus .800 or greater opponents. Schiano is 10-4-1 ATS as a road underdog since 2020 and catches Penn State in disarray after firing its offensive coordinator after the Michigan game.

Since 2003, conference road underdogs of at least a touchdown in games with totals of 48 points or less are 449-311-15 ATS (59%), producing a net profit of +15% in that span. Since 1990, double-digit conference road underdogs in games with totals of 46 points or less are 231-148-16 ATS (60.9%), including 110-67-9 ATS (62.1%) since 2016, covering the spread by an average margin of +3.42 points per game. Since 1990, .501 or greater conference road underdogs are 144-94-4 ATS (60.5%) versus .501 or greater teams coming off a conference loss by 11 points or fewer, covering the spread by an average of +2.04 points per game.

Since 1991, unranked college football underdogs averaging 125 or more rushing yards per game are 416-289-22 ATS (59%) in games with totals of 47 points or less, including 165-110-11 ATS (60%) since 2016, covering the spread by an average of +2.23 points per game. Finally, top 15 favorites of -14 or more in early afternoon affairs are 14-30-2 ATS (31.8%) versus unranked teams since 1990, falling short of market expectations by -6.1 points per game. Grab the points with Rutgers and invest with confidence.

UCLA at USC UNDER 64 points (-110)

Report: Since 1990, college football teams that failed to cover the spread by a combined 21 or more points in their last three games are 311-217-13 to the Under (59%) versus opponents that have failed to cover the spread by a combined 35 or more points in their last five games. Since 1998, conference underdogs of more than three points coming off an upset loss as double-digit favorites are 94-64-2 to the Under (59.5%), including 64-38-2 Under (62.7%) since 2013.

Since 2010, .501 to .610 college football teams coming off one or more consecutive losses are 324-270-8 to the Under (54.5%) versus teams with a winning record, including 88-66 Under (57.1%) since 2019. Finally, since 2002, college football games with totals that are at least seven points shorter from one of the team’s previous two games are 954-676-35 to the Under (58.5%).

Kentucky at South Carolina (+1.5) (-110)

Report: After suffering four consecutive losses from September 30 to October 28, South Carolina has responded with back-to-back wins over Jacksonville State (38-28) and Vanderbilt (47-6). South Carolina’s late-season response to adversity confirms what the players stated after last week’s win. “In one word, momentum,” tight end Joshua Simon said. “We wanted to get that momentum and finish strong.” The Gamecocks are focused on winning out to become bowl eligible for the third time in as many seasons under head coach Shane Beamer.

The scheduling circumstances are favorable for the Gamecocks as they are home for a third straight week and have faced significantly weaker opposition in each of their previous two games. In contrast, Kentucky arrives off a physical 49-21 loss to Alabama in which its offense finished with a dreadful 32% pass success rate, including 18% on passing downs. Kentucky went 3 and out on 40% of their offensive possessions and has been held under 300 yards in four of its last five games overall. Alabama pressured Kentucky QB Devin Leary on 41% of his dropbacks, resulting in just five completions, three sacks and an interception.

From a technical standpoint, college football home teams coming off a win by 35 or more points are 1107-306-3 SU (78.3%) and 759-615-34 ATS (55.2%) since 1989 provided the opponent is not entering off a road win. Since 2007, college football underdogs coming off a blowout win over a conference foe in which they allowed 250 or fewer total yards are 72-47-4 ATS (60.5%), including 23-12-1 ATS (65.7%) since 2019 and 14-6-1 ATS (70%) since 2021. This situation is 8-2-1 ATS (80%) since November 20, 2022, covering the spread by an average of +3.45 points per game. Grab the point(s) with South Carolina and invest with confidence.

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