Duke at Syracuse (+3.5) (-110)
Despite being 7-1 on the season, the Blue Devils have been outgained in each of their last four games and stand at an alarming -140 yards per game in conference play. Conversely, Syracuse takes the field with a 3-6 record despite being +19.0 yards per game on the season. The fundamental analysis strongly suggests that Duke should not be laying points in this game despite possesses a vastly better record.
Syracuse is averaging 20.1 points per game at 5.3 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.0 yards per play to a mediocre offensive squad. The strength of Syracuse’s offense is a solid ground game that is averaging 4.5 yards per rush play against teams that would combine to allow just 3.8 yards per rush play. Overall, Syracuse is 0.3 yards per play better than average offensively, which gives the Orange a nominal 0.1 yards per play advantage over a Duke stop unit that is only 0.2 yards per play better than average (5.4 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yards per play).
The matchup is favorable to Syracuse as the Orange are very good running the ball, whereas Duke’s front seven struggles to stop the run. In fact, Duke is allowing 214 rushing yards per game at 4.7 yards per carry, including giving up 250 rushing yards per game on the road at 5.1 yards per rush play. And, as many of you know, one of the things that I love to do is invest on home underdogs who possess an advantage from the line of scrimmage, which is what we have with Syracuse Saturday afternoon.
Syracuse also possesses an advantage on the defensive side of the ball as the Orange are 0.3 yards per play better than average defensively (5.0 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yards per play), while the Blue Devils’ attack is mediocre at best (5.8 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yards per play). In short, Duke’s 7-1 record is nothing more than a mirage as Syracuse is the better team from the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. With Syracuse standing at 14-5 ATS versus conference opponents and 8-1 ATS off a conference loss, grab the points with the Orange and invest with confidence.
Free Sports Picks: Syracuse (+3.5) (-110)
Iowa at Minnesota (+1) (-110)
Minnesota is 8-2 ATS in its last ten conference games and remains underrated by the betting market despite being 6-2 on the season. The Golden Gophers are 20-8 ATS in November games, 6-2 ATS in their last eight games versus teams with winning records and are coming off a much-needed bye. Meanwhile, Iowa rolls into town after defeating Northwestern 48-7, which is significant in that the Hawkeyes are a money-burning 1-4 ATS after scoring more than forty points in a game and 2-5 ATS following a blowout win by 20 or more points.
Minnesota is also the better team from the line of scrimmage as the Gophers are 0.1 yards per play better than average offensively (5.5 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yards per play) and 0.5 yards per play better than average defensively (4.9 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yards per play). Meanwhile, Iowa is 0.2 yards per play worse than average offensively (5.3 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.5 yards per play) and 0.3 yards per play better than average defensively (4.9 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yards per play).
The wrong team is favored in this game as my math model favors Minnesota by four points. Take the Gophers and invest with confidence.
Free Sports Picks: Minnesota (+1) (-110)