College Basketball Sharp Money Betting Report: Wednesday, February 25

Feb 25, 2015


Now that Wednesday’s college basketball betting market has sufficient liquidity, Oskeim Sports and its sources throughout the nation have isolated several college basketball games that have attracted substantial money from professional (i.e. sharp) sports bettors:

NCAA Basketball Teams Attracting Sharp Money:

  • Rotation #725: St. Joseph’s (+6.5)
  • Rotation #735: St. Bonaventure (+6)
  • Rotation #761: Texas Tech (+9)
  • Rotation #782: Iowa State (-6.5)
  • Rotation #791: Washington State (+2)
  • Rotation #796: California (-1)

Of course, professional bettors secured better numbers on the games listed above, and now the public is left to chase the steam at below-market value.  Here is analysis on one of the games attracting sharp money – Iowa State:

Hilton Coliseum provides one of the greatest home court advantages in college basketball. Indeed, since the arena was built in 1971, the Cyclones have compiled a 507-166 (.753) record within its friendly confines, including going 74-10 (.881) under head coach Fred Hoiberg (61-4 last four seasons).

Iowa State is currently riding the nation’s ninth-best home winning streak at 21 games, including 14-0 against conference foes. The Cyclones have also compiled fifteen wins against top-25 teams over the last two seasons (6-3 this year), which is the most in the country over the span.

Iowa State has won fourteen of its last sixteen games against ranked opponents at Hilton Coliseum and owns a perfect 12-0 mark versus Baylor in Ames. Technically speaking, Iowa State is a profitable 46-19 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less, including 10-3 ATS over the last three seasons.

I also like the fact that the Cyclones are 13-5 ATS in their last eighteen games versus .601 or greater opposition, 20-9 ATS in their last 29 home games versus teams with a winning road record, 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games versus .601 or greater opposition and 4-1 ATS in their last five conference games.

Iowa State takes the court with a potent attack that is averaging 79.8 points per game on 48.6% shooting from the field against teams that would combine to allow just 64.7 points per game to a mediocre offensive squad. Even more impressive is the fact that the Cyclones are a perfect 14-0 at home this season where they are averaging 82.9 points per game on 51.8% shooting from the floor.

Iowa State leads the Big 12 Conference in both scoring (8th nationally) and field goal shooting percentage (11th nationally), and the Cyclones boast an extremely well-balanced attack. In fact, eight different players have led the team in scoring this season, while nine different players have led the team in rebounding.

Iowa State has also benefited from the addition of Jameel McKay, who became eligible on December 29 and has averaged 10.4 points, 6.6 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game on 57.7% shooting from the field. The two-time NJCAA first-team All-American has 41 blocks in seventeen games, and his 2.8 blocks in conference games is second best in the Big 12 Conference. Since breaking into the starting lineup against Texas Tech, the Cyclones are 4-1 with McKay on the floor for the opening tip over which time he is averaging a team-high 13.0 points, 9.6 rebounds and 3.0 blocks.

Iowa State’s offense is led by point guard Monte Morris, who is averaging 10.9 points per game and leads the conference in both assists (5.4; 29th nationally) and assist-to-turnover ratio (4.5; 1st nationally). The Cousy Award watch list member also owns a team-high 31 steals and leads all Big-12 players with 91 steals since the start of last season.

Iowa State ranks eighth nationally with 16.9 assists per game and seventh nationally in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.5). The Cyclones have assisted on 60.0% of their field goals and ranks sixth nationally with a 55.8% field goal percentage on 2-point shots. Overall, the Cyclones are 15.1 points per game better than average offensively, which gives them an advantage over a very good Baylor defense that is 9.8 points per game better than average (58.8 points per game to teams that would combine to average 68.6 points per game. Meanwhile, Baylor’s offense has struggled on the road where the Bears are averaging a mere 64.4 points per game on 39.6% shooting from the field.

Finally, Iowa State has revenge on its mind after suffering a 74-73 loss at Baylor on a Kenny Cherry jumper at the buzzer. With the home team standing at 13-3 ATS in this series (favorite is 6-2 ATS L/8 meetings; Iowa State is 6-1 ATS L/7) and Baylor standing at 0-9 ATS in in last nine trips to Ames, lay the points with the Cyclones in this college basketball affair and invest with confidence.