My math model favors Boise State by nearly eight points in this college basketball game and the Lobos are a money-burning 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a win, 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 conference affairs, 8-18 ATS in their last 26 road games and 7-15 ATS in their last 22 road tilts against teams with a winning home record.
New Mexico has also failed to cover the point spread in seven consecutive games and is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five trips to Boise. The Rebels are 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS on the road this season where they are allowing 77.4 points per game on 37.9% shooting from the field.
Overall, New Mexico is 5.9 points per game better than average offensively (76.3 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 70.4 points per game) and 0.1 points per game worse than average defensively (73.8 points per game to teams that would combine to average 73.7 points per game).
New Mexico is hampered by a lack of size (34 rebounds per game; 8 offensive rebounds per game; 32 rebounds per game on the road) and is susceptible to committing personal fouls at a disturbing rate away from home (22 per game). The Lobos’ defense can also be exploited from the perimeter where teams are shooting 39.1% from beyond the arc this season.
Boise State takes the floor with double revenge and is a perfect 7-0 SU at home this season (4-1 ATS). The Broncos are 4.8 points per game better than average offensively (75.4 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 70.6 points per game) and 3.7 points per game better than average defensively (67.6 points per game to teams that would combine to average 71.3 point per game).
However, the Broncos have been nearly unstoppable at home where they are averaging 78.7 points and 40 rebounds per game. Boise State is also limiting opponents to a mere 60.6 points per game at home on 38.9% shooting from the floor and 31.0% from three-point territory.
I also like the fact that the Broncos are limiting conference foes to a 39,3% field goal percentage, whereas New Mexico is allowing conference opponents to make 38.2% of their three-pointers. With Boise State standing at 28-16 ATS in conference play over the last three seasons, lay the points with the Broncos as Oskeim Sports’ Free College Basketball Sports Pick on Tuesday, January 17.
Oskeim Sports’ Free College Basketball Sports Pick: Boise State (-5.5) (-110)