Boston College Looks to Upset Louisville in Chestnut Hill

Nov 7, 2014

NCAA Football: Pittsburgh at Boston College

Louisville is forced to pack its bags and travel to frigid Massachusetts only days after blowing a 21-point lead at home against the defending national champions (Florida State) on national television.  Meanwhile, Boston College continues to be underrated and undervalued by the betting market despite pulling upsets over USC (37-31; 17-point underdogs), North Carolina State (30-14; 2.5-point underdogs) and Virginia Tech (33-31; 3-point underdogs).

Boston College is an incredibly well-balanced team that is 0.4 yards per play better than average offensively (5.9 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.5 yards per play) and 0.6 yards per play better than average defensively (4.9 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yards per play).  Boston College’s offense is led by quarterback Tyler Murphy, who could be the most prolific running quarterback in college football.  Murphy leads all FBS quarterbacks with 965 rushing yards (7.4 yards per carry) and nine touchdowns).

The key to the Eagles’ offense is a solid ground attack that is averaging 5.5 yards per rush play against teams that would combine to allow 4.6 yards per rush play. However, despite being 0.9 yards per rush play better than average on the ground, Louisville’s front seven still possesses a nominal 0.2 yards per rush attempt advantage from the line of scrimmage.  Overall, Louisville’s defense, which is 1.0 yards per play better than average (4.4 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yards per play) owns a 0.6 yards per play advantage over the Eagles’ attack.

The problem for Louisville is a subpar offense that is averaging 5.2 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yards per play.  That production is not good enough to move the ball against a very good Boston College stop unit that is 0.8 yards per rush play and better than average and 0.6 yards per pass play better than average. Overall, Boston College possesses a significant 0.7 yards per play advantage defensively over the Cardinals’ mediocre attack.

As I stated earlier herein, the situation is extremely favorable to Boston College as the Cardinals are traveling north on the heels of blowing a massive lead against Florida State.  To expect anything other than a deflated, disinterested and unfocused Louisville squad would be ignoring the realities of the situation.  From a technical standpoint, Louisville applies to a very negative 11-54-3 ATS road letdown system of mine that is predicated upon its loss to the Seminoles, whereas the Eagles fall into a very strong 37-3-1 ATS home momentum angle that is 4-0 ATS over the last two seasons.

Let’s also note that Boston College is 11-4 ATS at home, 8-3 ATS versus teams with a winning record, 9-4 ATS versus conference opponents, 4-1 ATS as conference underdogs, 9-4 ATS in November games and 5-0 ATS at home versus teams with a winning road record.  With Boston College having cashed tickets in three of the last four meetings between these teams, grab the points with the Eagles and invest with confidence.