Big Ten Conference Betting Preview: Indiana at Maryland

Feb 11, 2015


Maryland is coming off a disappointing 71-55 loss at Iowa, which is significant in that the Terrapins are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games off a loss, including a perfect 4-0 SU this season. Maryland takes the floor with a very well-balanced team that is 5.4 points per game better than average offensively (70.7 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 65.3 points per game) and 6.8 points per game better than average defensively (63.8 points per game to teams that would combine to average 70.5 points per game).

More importantly, the Terrapins are 14-1 at home this season where they are limiting opponents to a mere 60.1 points per game on 38.7% shooting from the field and 27.3% from beyond the arc. Meanwhile, Indiana arrives at the XFINITY Center with a porous defense that is allowing 72.6 points per game to teams that would combine to average 69.6 points per game against a mediocre defensive squad.

Even more concerning for Indiana backers is the fact that the Hoosiers are 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS on the road this season where they are yielding 80.4 points per game on 49.0% shooting from the floor and 37.7% from three-point territory.

Indiana is also giving up an alarming 77.6 points on 55.1% shooting from the field and 40.% from beyond the arc over its last five games. Overall, Maryland possesses a solid 8.4 points per game advantage at the offensive end of the floor in this game. The Terrapins are outscoring opponents by an average of 13.2 points per game at home with Melo Trimble and Dez Wells averaging a team-high 15.7 points per game.

I also like the fact that Maryland ranks 4th nationally in free throws made (428) and 17th in attempts (578). Trimble is ranked third in the Big Ten Conference in free throw percentage (.865) and sixth in the nation in free throws made (141).

To say that I am not a believer in Indiana would be a gross understatement. The Hoosiers are completely untested on the road, failing to cover the number in three of their last four true away games:

  • Lost 70-50 at Michigan State as 8-point underdogs;
  • Lost 82-70 at Ohio State as 9-point underdogs;
  • Lost 83-67 at Purdue as 4.5-point underdogs

Indiana also underperformed during its non-conference slate this season, failing to cover the point spread against the likes of Texas Southern, Lamar, Eastern Washington (lost outright) and UNC-Greensboro. Maryland also enters tonight’s game with legitimate same-season revenge after suffering a humiliating 89-70 loss at Indiana less than one month ago. The box score from that game shows that Maryland was victimized by negative variance as the Hoosiers made 60.0% of their shots, including a ridiculous 15-for-22 from three-point range.

Finally, while Indiana boasts the league’s top-scoring offense, the Terrapins rank second in the Big Ten in defensive rebounds with 26.2 per game. Rebounding has been a point of emphasis for everyone on the floor as eight different players have led the Terrapins in rebounds throughout the season. Lay the points with Maryland and invest with confidence.