Kansas State finds itself in its preferred role as the Wildcats are 53-28 ATS as underdogs under head coach Bill Snyder (3-1 ATS this season). The Wildcats are also 7-0 ATS with Big 12 Conference revenge, 10-2 ATS .700 or greater conference opposition and 5-1 ATS as conference underdogs of five or more points. Let’s also note that Snyder’s squad has posted an impressive 13-10 SU and 17-5-1 ATS record in its last 23 conference road games, including 13-2 ATS when installed as an underdog. Since 1990, Kansas State has been a 60.4% winning proposition under coach Snyder, and the numbers actually suggest that the wrong team is favored in this game.
Kansas State arrives in Waco with a very good offense that is averaging 36.6 points per game on 428 total yards at 6.5 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow just 5.4 yards per play to a mediocre offensive squad. Kansas State quarterback Jake Waters has been extremely efficient this season, averaging 8.3 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yards per pass play to a mediocre quarterback.
Overall, the Wildcats are 1.1 yards per play better than average offensively, which is certainly good enough to take advantage of an overrated Baylor stop unit that is 0.5 yards per play better than average (5.3 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yards per play). The biggest weakness for Baylor is its secondary that is yielding 7.3 yards per pass attempt to teams that would combine to average 6.9 yards per pass attempt. Based on the numbers from the line of scrimmage, Kansas State possesses a huge +3.0 yards per pass play advantage the Bears’ secondary.
Overall, Kansas State maintains a significant +0.6 yards per play advantage offensively over the Bears’ stop unit. Baylor does possess a very good offense that is averaging 49.8 points per game on 581 total yards at 6.3 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yards per play. However, being 0.7 yards per play better than average is not good enough to move the chains against a stout Kansas State defense that is 1.1 yards per play better than average (5.1 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 6.2 yards per play). Kansas State possesses a +0.4 yards per play advantage defensively from the line of scrimmage over Baylor’s attack.
Now that we have established the fact that Kansas State is the better team from the line of scrimmage, let’s return to the technical analysis for a moment. The Wildcats are a profitable 37-13-1 ATS versus Big 12 Conference opponents, 21-6-1 ATS versus teams with a winning record, 16-5-1 ATS on the road versus teams with a winning home record and 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games overall.
Finally, Kansas State has one of the best special teams units in the nation, which will constantly put pressure on Baylor’s overrated attack. With Baylor standing at 1-4 ATS in its last five games off a win, take the Wildcats (the better team) plus the points in this Big 12 Conference clash and invest with confidence.