Seattle right-hander Nate Karns is having a terrific 2016 campaign, going 4-1 with a 3.33 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 3.62 xFIP, 3.79 SIERA and a 9.39 K/9 rate in 46.0 innings pitched. Karns now faces a scuffling Oakland squad that is averaging 3.8 runs per game (.244 AVG.; .292 OBP), including 3.7 runs per game versus right-handed starters (.242 AVG.; .291 OBP) and 3.9 runs per game versus division opponents (.239 AVG.; .282 OBP).
Let’s also note that Seattle is 6-1 in Karns’ last seven outings, and I expect that trend to continue Tuesday night.
Seattle also possesses a strong bullpen that boasts a 2.63 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 2016, including a 0.87 ERA and 0.58 WHIP over the last seven games. In contrast, Oakland receivers enter tonight’s game with a pedestrian 3.97 ERA, including a 4.58 ERA on the road and a 4.15 ERA at night.
Meanwhile, Oakland starter Kendall Graveman is 1-6 with a 5.48 ERA, 5.91 FIP and 4.37 SIERA this season. In his most recent start against Seattle, the young hurler allowed four earned runs on 10 hits in just 6.1 innings of work
Graveman pitches to contact (6.96 K/9) and induces a lot of ground balls (52.9% GB%), but he’s been plagued by the long ball (2.11 HR/9) and a lack of command (3.59 BB/9). The 25-year-old has also struggled on the road, posting a 7.91 ERA and 9.28 FIP despite having a favorable .263 BABIP and 80.4% LOB%.
Let’s also that the Athletics are 5-17 in Graveman’s last 22 starts, including 1-7 in his last 8 road outings and 0-7 in his last seven starts with four days of rest.
We have two teams heading in opposite directions as Seattle has won four straight (as of Monday afternoon) while Oakland has dropped four straight (as of Monday afternoon). Lay the price with the surging Mariners and invest with confidence.