Betting Market Adjusts on Baylor/Oklahoma State

Nov 18, 2013

One of the most anticipated college football games this weekend is Baylor at Oklahoma State as the Bears are looking to remain undefeated in 2013.  Baylor continues to expose sports books in Las Vegas and off shore as the Bears have won and covered four straight, including blowout wins over Iowa State (71-7), Kansas (59-14), Oklahoma (41-12) and Texas Tech (63-34).  “Nevada books continue to get trampled by Baylor each and every week,” said Peter Korner, founder of Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club.  “We don’t want to be light on this team.  Our range of numbers went from Baylor -10 to -14.  We saw the number diminish from -10.5 to -9.5 early Sunday morning, but we’re not falling for that.  We stuck a -11 as our opener and fully expected that weak -9.5 to jump back up in no time.”

Professional bettors and betting groups alike immediately exposed the sports books by grabbing the home underdog at +10.5 points, which was an artificially high line based upon public perception.  Oklahoma State is currently an 8.5-point underdog, although the Cowboys will likely find themselves as 9 to 9.5-point underdogs by kick-off after the betting public makes their preferences known.  Pro Edge Sports agrees with the early move by the sharps as Oklahoma State is capable of winning this game outright.

Oklahoma State is averaging 40.4 points per game this season at 4.5 yards per rush play, 7.1 yards per pass play and 5.7 yards per play.  The explosive nature of the Cowboys’ attack is best illustrated by the fact that they are averaging 10.6 yards per point, which is an incredible 2.8 yards per point better than average.  Despite having a good offense, Oklahoma State’s strength this season is its defense that is 0.6 yards per play better than average (4.7 yards per play to teams that combine to average 5.3 yards per play).

More importantly, the Cowboys’ secondary is 0.8 yards per pass attempt better than average (5.8 yards per pass play to quarterbacks who combine to average 6.6 yards per pass play), which is important when facing an explosive Baylor aerial attack that is averaging 12.5 yards per pass attempt.  Pro Edge also likes the fact that Oklahoma State is limiting opponents to just 12.0 points per game at home, including 4.8 yards per pass play, 4.2 yards per play and 25.5 yards per point.  It’s also important to note that the Cowboys do not give up big plays as they are allowing 19.6 yards per point, which is 4.2 yards per point better than average.

Oklahoma is the most underrated 9-1 team in college football as the Cowboys have won and covered five straight, including last week’s impressive road win over Texas (38-13).  Oklahoma State is 15-3 SU and 13-4 ATS in this series since 1992, including going 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS at home.  The Cowboys are also 8-1 ATS off a road win, 12-3 ATS following a road game, 14-4 ATS after a win and 11-2 ATS in the second half of the season.