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Bet Against John Calipari at Your Own Peril in Tournament Play

Let’s begin with compelling technical analysis that favors Kentucky this afternoon.  The Wildcats are an amazing 48-10 SU and 37-19-2 ATS in the SEC tournament since 1991, including 10-1 ATS when playing with revenge. Meanwhile, Kentucky head coach John Calipari is 42-8 SU in conference tournament play, including 24-4 SU and 20-8 ATS in the final two rounds.  With those money-making trends out of the way, let’s take a look at the fundamental analysis.

Kentucky Offense:

Kentucky is averaging 76.4 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 68.6 points per game, thereby making the Wildcats 7.8 points per game better than average offensively. Kentucky will be challenged at the offensive end of the floor by a very good Florida defense that is 13.6 points per game better than average (57.9 points per game to teams that would combine to average 71.5 points per game).  Overall, Florida possesses a decent 5.8 points per game advantage defensively over the Wildcats’ attack.

Kentucky Defense:

Kentucky is allowing 66.8 points per game to teams that would combine to average 72.9 points per game, including limiting opponents to 40.3% shooting from the field.  Overall, the Wildcats are 6.1 points per game better than average defensively this season, which is certainly good enough to contain a Florida attack that is 3.0 points per game better than average (71.0 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 68.0 points per game).  I also like the fact that Kentucky is limiting opponents to a mere 65.8 points over the last five games, while Florida is averaging just 68.5 points per game on the road.  At the end of the day, Kentucky maintains a 3.1 points per game advantage defensively over the Gators’ overrated attack.

The betting public has fallen in love with Florida, and the media has only fueled that love affair with all the chatter about the Gators’ possibly securing a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.  Amateur bettors will also be persuaded by the fact that Florida swept the regular-season series by 29 points (69-59; 84-65), but the Wildcats are 11-3-1 ATS in conference tournament play with revenge.  My math model only favors Florida by 4.5-points on a neutral court and the Wildcats apply to a solid 53-22-3 ATS situation of mine.  Grab the generous points and invest with confidence.

 

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