Since 2007, Oskeim Sports has provided bettors with the best free picks in football, basketball and MLB. Indeed, Oskeim’s best free picks have delivered winners over 55% of the time.
On Sunday, one of Oskeim’s best free picks involves the National League contest between the Milwaukee Brewers and San Francisco Giants. Oskeim recommends taking the Giants as one of his best free picks for July 29.
Milwaukee is a money-burning 3-9 in its last twelve road games, 1-7 in its previous eight games versus teams with a losing record, 0-6 in its last six road tilts versus .499 or worse opposition and 3-7 in Junior Guerra’s previous ten road starts.
The Brewers are just 17-26 (-12.1 units) in day games this season wherein they are averaging a mere 3.7 runs per game (.293 OBP, .660 OPS). In contrast, the Giants are 21-16 (+9.6 units) in afternoon affairs and 31-21 (+7.4 units) at home this season.
I also like the fact that San Francisco is a profitable 21-9 in its last 30 games versus a right-handed starter, 15-4 in its last 19 home games versus a right-handed starter and 5-0 in its last five contests during game 4 of a series.
The Giants have played well in this series, going 17-7 in the last 24 meetings and 11-4 in the last 15 clashes inside AT&T Park. Guerra’s 3.13 ERA is undermined by a 4.04 FIP and 4.36 xFIP.
The 33-year-old continues to struggle with his command (3.56 BB/9) and has been significantly worse away from Miller Park.
Specifically, Guerra owns a 4.30 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 4.43 FIP and 4.45 xFIP across 37.2 road innings, together with an alarming 49.6% hard contact rate.
Guerra has a 47.7% hard contact in 21.3 innings of work this month so batters are not being fooled by his pedestrian repertoire. Milwaukee’s bullpen owns the Major’s 12th-best FIP and 8th-worst walk-per-nine rate (3.52 BB/9). The Giants’ relief staff is ranked 8th and 15th, respectively, in those categories.
San Francisco southpaw Andrew Suarez has quietly put together a solid resume this season, posting a 3.99 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 3.49 xFIP and a 51.4% groundball rate in seventeen starts (94.2 IP).
Suarez has pitched well at home where he boasts a 3.35 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 3.30 xFIP and a 52.3% groundball rate across 48.1 innings. I also like the fact that the lefty’s hard contact rate has dropped to 28.2% in July, a span of 23.2 innings.
Interestingly, Guerra and Suarez are two of 13 pitchers with non-winning records in the National League this season who have made at least 15 starts with an ERA less than 4.00.
Finally, San Francisco applies to a very good 34-10 system that has generated +20.9 units of profit over the past five seasons.
With San Francisco standing at 5-1 in Suarez’s last six starts against teams with a winning record, take the Giants as one of Oskeim Sports’ best free picks for Sunday.
Oskeim Sports’ Best Free Picks for July 29:
- San Francisco Giants (-107) over Milwaukee Brewers
- San Diego Padres (+102) over Arizona Diamondbacks
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