Oskeim Sports Free MLB Best Bet Winner: Twins as Angels

Jun 1, 2017

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Minnesota left-hander Adalberto Mejia is a glorified Triple-A arm who continues to implode in the Majors. The 23-year-old toes the rubber with a 4.64 ERA, 5.52 FIP and 5.01 SIERA in five starts this season, together with an alarming 5.06 BB/9 rate and a 1.69 HR/9 rate.  I always look to make a Best Bet every 4-5 days when Mejia takes the mound.

Mejia’s two-seam fastball has generated very few swings and misses and his secondary pitches are far from being average.  In fact, scouts have called his changeup a “batting practice” pitch that isn’t “fooling anyone.” In one road start this season, the southpaw allowed three runs (2 earned) and two walks in just 1 2/3 innings of work.

From a technical standpoint, Minnesota is a money-burning 0-4 in its last four games versus American League West opponents and 0-4 in its last four games overall, whereas the Angels are a profitable 4-0 in their last four tilts against American League Central foes, 6-1 in their last seven home games and 7-2 in their last nine home affairs versus left-handed starters.

Let’s also note that the Twins are just 16-38 in their last 54 trips to Los Angeles.  Minnesota’s bullpen continues to implode in 2017, posting a 5.17 ERA and 1.48 WHIP overall, including a 10.55 ERA and 2.27 WHIP in its last seven games.  In contrast, the Angels’ relief staff enters tonight’s game with a 3.84 ERA and 1.14 WHIP this season, including a 2.92 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over the last seven games.

Finally, Los Angeles applies to a very good 41-9 and 36-6 systems that invest on certain home favorites of -175 or less versus teams with a middling starting pitcher and a scuffling offense (batting .215 or worse L/5 games).   At a bargain price, take the Los Angeles Angels as Oskeim Sports’ Free Best Bet for Thursday and invest with confidence.

Oskeim Sports Free Best Bet for Thursday, June 1: Los Angeles Angels (-110)