Baylor, Oklahoma Clash in Big 12 Conference Title Elimination Game

Nov 5, 2014


For as long as Bob Stoops has been Oklahoma’s head coach, the Sooners have never lost consecutive home games, and I don’t expect that streak to end Saturday in Norman.  Oklahoma is one of the most underrated teams in college football as the Sooners are averaging 41.5 points per game at 5.7 yards per rush play, 7.8 yards per pass play, 6.7 yards per play and 11.9 yards per point.  The Sooners are also 2-1 at home this season where they are averaging 474 total yards at 6.5 yards per play and 12.7 yards per point.

Overall, Oklahoma is 1.4 yards per rush attempt, 1.0 yards per pass attempt and 1.3 yards per play better than average offensively, which is good enough to move the ball against a very solid Baylor stop unit.  Baylor is 0.7 yards per play better than average defensively (4.5 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yards per play), but that still gives the Sooners a 0.6 yards per play advantage offensively from the line of scrimmage.  The Sooners should have most of their success through the air where they can exploit a mediocre Baylor secondary that is just 0.2 yards per pass play better than average (6.5 yards per pass play to teams that would combine to average 6.7 yards per pass play).

Oklahoma Offense vs. Baylor Defense:

  • +0.4 yards per rush play advantage
  • +0.8 yards per pass play advantage
  • +0.6 yards per play advantage overall from the line of scrimmage

Oklahoma also possesses a decent stop unit that is 0.6 yards per rush play, 0.5 yards per pass play and 0.5 yards per play better than average in 2014.  Like Oklahoma, the Bears will likely throw the ball more often than not as they have a pass attack that is 1.1 yards per pass play better than average (8.9 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 7.8 yards per pass play), which gives them a 0.6 yards per pass attempt advantage offensively in this Big 12 Conference meeting.

The problem for Baylor is the fact its offense is less productive on the road where the Bears are averaging just 5.9 yards per play, which is significantly worse than their season average of 6.7c yards per play.  Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s defense has been very good at home where the Sooners are limiting opponents to just 19.0 points per game and 314 total yards at 4.8 yards per play.  Baylor has lost its last ten games in Norman by an average margin of 20.4 points per game, and I expect similar results Saturday from a focused Oklahoma squad hell-bent on avenging its embarrassing 41-12 loss at Baylor last year.

While I have a lot of respect for Baylor head coach Art Briles, he has failed to live up to expectations against quality opponents.  Specifically, Briles is 49-8 SU versus teams with a losing record, but only 28-44 SU versus teams with winning records. Briles is also just 9-26 SU versus .750 or greater opposition, including 0-16 SU on the road.

Finally, the Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus teams with a winning record and 1-4 ATS as road underdogs less than ten points, whereas Oklahoma is 6-2 ATS versus teams with a winning record and 5-0 ATS following a blowout win of more than 20 points.  Lay the points in this Big 12 Conference clash and invest with confidence.