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Battle of Michigan: Spartans vs. Wolverines

The technical analysis strongly favors Michigan State as the Spartans are 9-2 ATS on the road versus teams with a winning record, including a perfect 7-0 ATS on the road versus teams with a win percentage between .600 and .800.  The Spartans are 29-14 ATS when playing with same-season revenge, 34-19 ATS following a conference game, 13-5 ATS as underdogs of less than six points and a perfect 8-0 ATS on the road this season.  The one concern for Michigan State backers in the fact that the Spartans are just 19-34 ATS on the road in competitively-priced games (+3 to -3), whereas the Wolverines are 16-5 ATS off one or more consecutive losses.

Michigan State:

Michigan State is a very well-balanced squad that is averaging 77.6 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 68.9 points per game, thereby making the Spartans 8.7 points per game better than average offensively.  We have also been impressed with how well the Spartans have shot the ball over their last five games: 46.5% FG; 42.0% 3-PT; 75.3% FT. Defensively, Michigan State is allowing 65.3 points per game to teams that would combine to average 72.2 points per game, thereby making the Spartans 6.9 points per game better than average defensively.

Michigan:

Michigan is 7.2 points per game better than average offensively (75.0 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 67.8 points per game) and 7.2 points per game better than average defensively (64.8 points per game to teams that would combine to average 72.0 points per game).  However, the Wolverines are 10-2 SU and 7-3 ATS at home this season where they are averaging 79.9 points per game on 51.2% shooting from the field and 41.9% from beyond the arc.  Similarly, Michigan is limiting opponents to a mere 59.4 points per game at home on 40.3% shooting from the floor and 28.2% from three-point territory.

Going back to the technical analysis for a moment, let’s note that Michigan State is 17-3-1 ATS (85%) when playing with same-season revenge from Game 20 out, provided they are matched up against an .819 or worse opponent.  Michigan State is 20-9 SU in this series dating back to 1997, and we give a slight nod to Tom Izzo’s squad to avenge its 80-75 loss to Michigan last month.  Take the Spartans in the battle of Michigan.

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