Baltimore is a disappointing 3-4 at Camden Yards this season, but the Orioles should reach the .500 mark behind starting pitcher Miguel Gonzalez. Baltimore is an incredible 14-3 in its last seventeen home games with Gonzalez on the mound, and the talented right-hander should have littler trouble silencing a scuffling Tampa Bay lineup.
Tampa Bay is batting a woeful .223 with a .302 on base percentage this season (3.2 runs per game), including hitting .186 with a .249 on base percentage on the road (2.0 runs per game), .217 with a .297 on base percentage at night (3.2 runs per game) and .186 with a .249 on base percentage over its last seven games (2.0 runs per game). After scoring 31 runs through their first six games, the Rays have totaled 14 while hitting just .192 over their last eight.
“We did hit some balls well. Our geometry is really bad right now. We’re hitting balls at people,” manager Joe Maddon said. “We just have to keep going up there and battling through it. It’s just one of those bad periods.” Meanwhile, Baltimore’s bats have finally come alive after a slow start to the 2014 campaign. Indeed, after scoring five runs in 30 innings while dropping two of three to Toronto over the weekend, Baltimore surpassed that total in the first three frames Monday on its way to a 7-1 victory over Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay’s offensive woes are significant in that the Rays are 8-20 (-14.4 units) on the road after batting .225 or worse over a five game span. The technical analysis looks a lot better for the Orioles, who are a profitable 106-85 (+21.9 units) in competitively-priced games (+125 to -125), 94-78 (+22.8 units) in the first half of the season and 81-67 (+17.0 units) after winning two of their last three games. Finally, Baltimore starter Miguel Gonzalez is a perfect 7-0 at home in the first half of the season.
Pro Edge also likes how Baltimore’s bullpen has performed to date: a 3.48 ERA and 1.28 WHIP overall, including a 2.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP at night and a 3.00 ERA and 1.18 WHIP versus division opponents.
Pro Edge Sports Pick: Baltimore Orioles (-104)