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At 20-7, Oklahoma Remains Underrated & Undervalued by Vegas

Oklahoma head coach Lon Kruger has exceeded all expectations this season as the Sooners are 20-7 SU and 15-10 ATS, including 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS on the road and 9-5 SU and ATS in conference play.  Oklahoma’s success begins with a very good offense that is averaging 82.7 points per game against teams that would combine to allow just 69.7 points per game, thereby making the Sooners 13.0 points per game better than average offensively.  I am even more impressed with the fact that Oklahoma is averaging 76.7 points per game on the road, including tallying 75 points at Iowa State, 86 points at West Virginia and 77 points at Oklahoma State.

Meanwhile, Kansas takes the floor with a decent stop unit that is allowing 69.1 points per game to teams that would combine to average 74.7 points per game.  However, being 5.6 points per game better than average is not good enough to contain an explosive Oklahoma attack that possesses a significant 7.4 points per game advantage offensively in this game.  Those offensive numbers are significant in that the Sooners are 8-1 ATS when scoring between 75 and 80 points, 22-8 ATS when attempting between 54 and 62 shots in a game and 14-5 ATS when shooting between 40% and 46% from the field.

Oklahoma’s weakness is a defense that is yielding 76.8 points per game to teams that would combine to average 74.5 points per game.  This game is likely going to be a high scoring affair as Kansas is 10.7 points per game better than average offensively (79.7 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 69.0 points per game), thereby giving the Jayhawks a substantial 13.0 points per game advantage offensively tonight.  Interestingly, Oklahoma plays better defense on the road (74.6 points per game), but the Jawhawks are averaging 83.8 points per game at home on 53.8% shooting from the field.

I have no doubt that Oklahoma can be competitive in this game as the Sooners are 9-2 ATS versus teams who are outscoring their opponents by eight or more points on the season.  Oklahoma also applies to a solid 43-4-1 ATS momentum situation of mine that invests on certain underdogs off two or more consecutive SU and ATS wins, provided they are playing with same-season revenge.  With Oklahoma suffering an 90-83 loss to Kansas in January, the Sooners fall squarely within the foregoing angle.  Kansas, on the other hand, is coming off a huge revenge win over Texas, which is significant in that the Jawhawks are 2-8 ATS at home after facing the Longhorns, including 0-6 ATS off a win.  Finally, Oklahoma is 7-1 ATS on the road versus .751 or greater opposition this season and stands at 7-1 ATS with same-season revenge from a loss of six points or less.


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