Miami right-hander Jose Urena toes the rubber with a 3.14 ERA across 43.0 innings this season, a span covering eleven appearances (5 starts). However, the 25-year-old’s surface statistics are grossly misleading in light of his peripherals: 5.06 FIP, 5.56 xFIP and a 5.15 SIERA.
Urena is walking too many batters (3.56 BB/9) and has been susceptible to the long ball (1.26 HR/9). The righty has survived on an unsustainable .246 BABIP (career .294 BABIP) and 83.0% strand rate (career 67.8% LOB%).
Arizona is 27-13 at night this season where it’s averaging 5.5 runs per game (.795 OPS). In contrast, the Marlins are a money-burning 13-24 in evening contests where they are averaging 4.4 runs per game (.710 OPS).
Arizona southpaw Pat Corbin owns a 5.14 ERA, but he has been victimized by an extremely unlucky (and unsustainable) .330 BABIP (career .310 BABIP). Corbin takes the mound with a 4.72 FIP, 4.18 xFIP and 4.29 SIERA so his ERA should begin to regress towards his peripherals.
Corbin owns a disturbing 1.61 HR/9 rate, but it’s important to keep in mind that the lefty pitches half of his games at Chase Field. He induces a decent number of ground balls (48.5%) and has demonstrated improved command and control this season (2.79 BB/9 vs. 3.82 BB/9 in 2016).
From a technical standpoint, the Diamondbacks are a profitable 7-0 in game 2 of a series, 4-0 in their last four games versus National League East opponents, 6-1 in their last seven games following a win, 16-5 versus .499 or worse opposition and 13-4 in their last seventeen games overall.
Arizona is also 7-3 in Corbin’s last ten road outings versus teams with a losing record and 5-2 in his last seven starts overall, whereas the Marlins are a woeful 7-15 in Urena’s last 22 starts, including 2-11 in Urena’s last 13 home outings, 3-8 in his last 11 starts versus teams with a winning record and 0-5 in his last five starts during game 2 of a series.
Miami is 7-21 in its last 28 games during game 2 of a series and 1-5 in its last six games versus a left-handed starter. Finally, home teams are averaging just 3.5 runs per game with umpire Adam Hamari behind the plate this season.
Take the Arizona Diamondbacks as Oskeim Sports’ Free MLB Best Bet on Friday, June 2 and invest with confidence.
Oskeim Sports’ Free MLB Best Bet: Arizona Diamondbacks (+103)