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ALCS & NLCS Betting Report: Pitching Dominates

With the ALCS tied 1-1, Boston arrives in Detroit with all the momentum after Sunday’s improbable 6-5 comeback win over the Tigers.  Let’s take a closer at today’s starting pitchers for Game Three between Boston and Detroit:

John Lackey:

  • Lackey is 11-13 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.17 WHIP this season, including going 4-10 with a 4.48 ERA and 1.27 WHIP on the road, 6-4 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in day games and 2-1 with a 3.98 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over his last three starts;
  • Lackey is 6-3 with a career 3.86 ERA and 1.32 WHIP versus the Tigers, including allowing a combined 5 earned runs on 14 hits in 14.3 innings of work against Detroit in 2013.
  • Lackey is 4-1 (+4.2 units) as an underdog between +125 and +150 and 5-2 (+3.8 units) with a total of 7 runs or less.

Justin Verlander:

  • Verlander is 14-12 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 2013, including going 6-7 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.37 WHIP at home, 7-4 with a 2.64 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in day games and 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.57 WHIP over his last three starts;
  • Verlander is 3-4 with a career 3.63 ERA and 1.19 WHIP versus the Red Sox, including allowing a combined 7 earned runs in ten innings of work against Boston since July, 2012;
  • Verlander is 33-11 (+15.4 units) at home versus teams with a win percentage between .540 and .620, including 20-4 (+14.3 units) versus these teams in the second half of the season;
  • Verlander is 36-10 (+17.7 units) at home with a total of 7.5 runs or less in his career.

The Dodgers trail the NLCS 2-1 after last night’s dominating 3-0 win over the Cardinals. Game Four offers a strong pitching matchup between Lance Lynn and Ricky Nolasco:

Lance Lynn:

  • Lynn is 15-11 with a 4.11 ERA and 1.34 WHIP this season, including going 6-7 with a 5.15 ERA and 1.45 WHIP on the road, 11-9 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.33 WHIP at night and 2-1 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.32 WHIP over his last three starts;
  • Lynn is 2-0 with a career 2.50 ERA and 1.16 WHIP versus the Dodgers, including limiting Los Angeles to one run in his last two outings.

Ricky Nolasco:

  • Nolasco is 13-11 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 2013, including going 7-7 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.21 WHIP at home, 9-8 with a 4.03 ERA and 1.31 WHIP at night and 0-2 with a 12.75 ERA and 2.33 WHIP over his last three starts;
  • Nolasco is 3-4 with a career 3.99 ERA and 1.46 WHIP versus the Cardinals, including allowing just one earned run over his last three starts against St. Louis (18 IP; 19 H; 1 ER; 13 K; 3 BB).

Pitching Note: Los Angeles manager Don Mattingly is considering starting Zack Greinke on short rest tonight.  While Nolasco has terrific career numbers against St. Louis, he has not started a game since September 25 and has been hit hard over his last three outings (22.7 IP; 17 ER; 24 H; 12 K; 4 BB).  We hope you enjoyed Pro Edge’s ALCS & NLCS Betting Report!