Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Sunday, September 28! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors winning free picks on Sunday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) (-110) at San Francisco 49ers
Report: Jacksonville entered the 2025-26 season looking for redemption after finishing last year with a disappointing 4-13 record. Since 1991, NFL road underdogs of less than seven points that won fewer than five games in the previous season are 303-198-12 ATS (60.5%), including 114-68-5 ATS (62.6%) since 2015, covering the spread by an average margin of +2.9 points per game. San Francisco finished last season with a 6-11 record, which is significant in that NFL favorites that failed to make the playoffs the previous season are 192-271-13 ATS (41.5%) in Games 1-4 of the regular season. Since 2009, NFL road underdogs of four points or less coming off a home game that went under the total are 205-154-9 ATS (57.1%), including 89-65-2 ATS (57.8%) since 2019.
Finally, since 2008, non-divisional home favorites of four points or less are 189-240-13 ATS (44.1%), including 94-123-6 ATS (43.3%) since 2017.
Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons (+1.5) (-110)
Report: Atlanta returns home from an embarrassing 30-0 loss to Carolina, which is significant for several reasons. First, since 1990, NFL teams coming off a game in which they failed to cover the spread by 27 or more points are 230-162-12 ATS (58.7%), including 61-40-3 ATS (60.4%) since 2016. Second, NFL underdogs coming off a game in which they scored three points or less are 140-103-4 ATS (57.6%), while teams entering off a shutout loss are 88-60-4 ATS (59.5%) with regular rest. Meanwhile, NFL teams coming off a home game are 49-62-2 ATS (44.1%) versus opponents off as shutout loss, including 9-19 ATS (32.1%) since 2015, failing to cover the spread by an average margin of -2.3 points per game.
Since 2017, conference underdogs of six points or less coming off a loss are a profitable 276-222-16 ATS (55.4%). Finally, since 2013, NFL teams with a bye week on deck are 247-191-7 ATS (56.4%).
Tennessee Titans (+7.5) (-110) at Houston Texans
Report: Tennessee arrives with a 0-3 record, which is relevant in that winless NFL road underdogs are 320-230-12 ATS (58.2%), including 76-36-2 ATS (67.9%) since 2018, covering the spread by an average margin of +2.2 points per game. Similarly, winless conference road teams are 115-70-5 ATS (62.2%) from Week 4 forward, including 30-13 ATS (69.8%) since 2016, covering the spread by an average margin of +3.0 points per game. The Titans arrive off a 41-20 loss to Indianapolis, which is a positive development because NFL road teams coming off a double-digit loss are 256-190-9 ATS (57.4%) in Weeks 2-5, including 76-43-4 ATS (63.9%) since 2016. Houston has also lost its first three games of the regular season, and 0-3 NFL home favorites are 8-16 ATS (33.3%) in Week 4 affairs, failing to cover the spread by an average of -4.5 points per game.
Finally, since 1989, in NFL games between two winless teams, the underdog is 117-83-7 ATS (58.5%), including 29-17-2 ATS (63%) since 2018.
Bonus NFL Betting Trends for Sunday, September 28
- Since 1991, NFL teams coming off a loss by 20 or more points are 376-294-14 to the Under (56.1%).
- Since 2017, NFL teams coming off a game in which they allowed 40 or more points are 128-98-4 to the Under (56.6%).
- Since 2000, non-division primetime games with totals of less than 45 points are 130-95-5 to the Under (57.8%), including 65-39-3 UNDER (62.5%) since 2016, going under by an average of -2.4 points per game.
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