Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Saturday, May 10! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors winning free picks on Saturday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Boston Celtics at New York Knicks UNDER 205.5 points (-110)
Report: The Knicks came back from 20 points down to stun Boston 91-90 on Wednesday, and that result is noteworthy in that NBA playoff road favorites coming off a home loss are 23-5-1 to the Under (82.1%) from Round 2 forward, going under by an average margin of -7.3 points per game. Similarly, NBA playoff road favorites of seven points or less coming off an upset home loss are 27-18-1 to the Under (60%). Since 2003, NBA playoff teams coming off a home loss by four points or fewer are 85-61-2 to the Under (60.1%) versus opponents entering off a road win, provided they are not double-digit underdogs, including 28-9 UNDER (75.7%) since 2019, going under by an average of -7.3 points per game. The Under falls into a very good 129-93-5 ATS (58.1%) NBA totals system of mine that dates to 2004 and invests on the under in certain postseason games with totals that are smaller than the totals in each of the previous two meetings. This situation is 64-38-1 to the Under (62.7%) since 2017, going under by an average margin of -3.4 points per game.
Since 2004, NBA contests between teams whose season game totals combine to average 437 or more points are 747-589-42 to the Under (55.9%) in games with totals of less than 218 points. Since 2006, NBA playoff road favorites are 190-147-11 to the Under (56.4%). Finally, the Celtics are 28-17 to the Under (62.2%) with double revenge in postseason play, including 14-7 UNDER (66.7%) since 2017, going under by an average of -6.6 points per game.
San Diego Padres (-218) at Colorado Rockies
Report: Since 2006, MLB road favorites of -200 or greater are 746-322 SU (69.9%; +1.2% ROI) and 599-422 RL (58.7%; +1.6% ROI), including 591-275 SU (68.2%) and 451-347 RL (56.5%) versus .449 or worse opponents, winning by an average margin of +2.0 runs per game. San Diego falls into a very good 555-240 SU (69.8%; +1.3% ROI) and 451-309 RL (59.3%; +2.3% ROI) Large Road Favorite System of mine that dates to 2006 and invests on certain favorites of -200 or greater. This situation is 486-203 SU (70.5%; +2% ROI) and 413-276 RL (59.9%; +2.8% ROI) since 2012, winning by an average margin of +2.4 runs per game. Since 2013, divisional road favorites of -160 or greater are 517-232 SU (69%; +5.1% ROI) and 416-331 RL (55.7%; +2.7% ROI) versus opponents with revenge, winning by an average of +2.0 runs per game. Since 2005, MLB home underdogs coming off a game in which they allowed ten or more runs are 542-816 SU (39.9%; -8.4% ROI) and 632-580 RL (-5.5% ROI), losing by an average of -1.1 runs per game. That situation fits nicely with the fact that the Padres are 15-6 SU (71.4%; +19.8% ROI) and 13-8 RL (61.9%; +17.9% ROI) since June 17, 2019, following a game in which they scored thirteen or more runs.
Since 2007, divisional home underdogs of +150 or greater are 385-802 SU (32.4%; -11.4% ROI) and 531-651 RL (-8.4% ROI), losing by an average of -1.9 runs per game. Finally, since 2007, MLB home underdogs coming off a loss in games that start after 4 p.m. eastern time are just 2214-3124 SU (41.5%; -5.8% ROI) and 2839-2479 RL (-4.9% ROI), including 735-1121 SU (39.6%; -7.3% ROI) and 945-910 RL (-7.7% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.2 runs per game.
Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes (-196)
Report: Carolina falls into a very good 865-415 (67.6%) NHL system that invests on certain home favorites coming off a straight-up loss. Meanwhile, the Capitals apply to a negative 813-1246 (39.5%; -10.6% ROI) system that dates to 2011 and invests against certain conference road underdogs. Since 2003, NHL teams are 150-243 (38.2%; -12.8% ROI) versus opponents coming off a game in which they scored two or fewer goals if they had twelve or more giveaways in the previous meeting. Finally, since 2004, NHL teams coming off a win in which they had fewer than eighteen hits and nineteen or more giveaways are 34-51 SU (40%; -23.7% ROI) and 31-54 RL (36.5%; -31.4% ROI).
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