Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Saturday, October 12! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Saturday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Penn State at USC (+3.5) (-110)
Report: My math model favors Penn State by less than three points and USC head coach Lincoln Riley is 7-1 ATS as an underdog of more than three points and 4-1 ATS as an underdog versus conference opponents. Riley is 41-4 straight-up at home in his coaching career, whereas the Nittany Lions are just 5-9 ATS in road conference openers. Penn State falls into a very negative 554-704-23 ATS (44%) system of mine that invests against college football teams facing opponents playing with against-the-spread (ATS) revenge for a defeat that went over the total by four or more points. This situation is 191-291-6 ATS (39.6%) since 2021, falling short of market expectations by an average of -2.7 points per game. The preceding system contains a 321-422-14 ATS (43.2%) subset angle that dates to 2014 and is 119-203-3 ATS (37%) since 2020, failing to cover the spread by an average of -3.7 points per game. Since 2019, college football teams are 270-367-11 ATS (42.4%) versus opponents with at least one win coming off a game that went under the total in which they attempted twelve or fewer third downs, including 76-115-4 ATS (39.8%) since 2023, failing to cover the spread by an average of -2.7 points per game.
Since 2019, college football favorites off a game in which they did not fumble are 176-232-6 ATS (43.1%) versus opponents they had sixteen or more pass completions against in the previous meeting. This situation is 88-124-3 ATS (41.5%) since 2022.
Georgia Tech at North Carolina (+4) (-110)
Report: North Carolina has lost three consecutive games and has not covered a point spread this season, going 0-5-1 ATS. However, my math model only favors Georgia Tech by 1.3 points. North Carolina head coach Mack Brown is 9-3 ATS at home with a .500 record, including a perfect 6-0 ATS versus .666 or greater conference opponents. North Carolina’s offense has been 0.8 yards per play better than average with Jacolby Criswell at quarterback and should have success against a subpar Georgia Tech defense that has been 0.4 yards per play worse than average this season (6.2 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yards per play against an average defense). The Yellow Jackets are 3-9 SU and 2-10 ATS as road favorites over the last ten years, including 0-7 ATS versus .500 or greater opponents. Georgia Tech is 4-8 SU and 2-9-1 ATS as a favorite versus avenging opposition. Since 1989, college football teams with three or more wins are just 149-195-9 ATS (43.3%) versus opponents coming off a game that went under the total in which they defended 44 or more pass attempts, including 42-82-2 ATS (33.9%) since 2017, failing to cover the spread by an average of -3.8 points per game.
Since 1989, college football teams coming off a game in which their opponent had a QBR of less than 71.3 are 83-49-1 ATS (62.9%) versus foes entering off a win in which they didn’t fumble the ball, covering the spread by an average of +3.1 points per game. Since 2019, college football teams with fewer than four wins coming off a game where their opponent had six or more penalties are 215-281-13 ATS (43.3%) if their average rank on the season is 9.0 or worse. Finally, since 2020, college football underdogs are 469-349-13 ATS (57.3%) versus opponents coming off a game in which they attempted sixteen or more third downs, provided they don’t have same-season revenge, including 152-105-3 ATS (59.1%) since the beginning of the 2023-24 season.
San Diego State at Wyoming (-1) (-110)
Report: Since 2002, college football home teams coming off a win and a bye week are 400-321-23 ATS (55.5%), including 45-33-2 ATS (57.7%) since 2021. Since 2016, .509 or worse teams with seven or more days of rest are 169-129-4 ATS (56.7%) versus .509 or worse opponents with regular rest in Weeks 6-12, including 54-24-1 ATS (69.2%) since 2021, covering the spread by an average of +5.3 points per game. Since 2011, college football teams coming off a bye week are 276-226-16 ATS (55%) versus opponents with less than three wins on the season, provided they had a negative turnover margin in the game before their bye. This situation is 126-94-2 ATS (57.3%) since 2019. Since 2013, college football teams coming off an against-the-spread (ATS) win by 10.5 or more points are 136-101-2 ATS (57.4%) if they are averaging a QBR rating of at least 37 on the season.
Finally, since 1980, college football teams in Game 6 coming off their initial win of the season are 39-17-2 ATS (69.6%), including 23-9 ATS (72%) versus .400 or greater opponents. If these squads are coming off a SU and ATS win of fewer than thirteen points, they improve to 19-5-1 ATS (79.2%), including 13-1-1 ATS (93%) if they won five or more games the previous season.
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