Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ NFL Betting preview! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Sunday’s NFL games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
New England Patriots (-2.5) (-110) at New York Jets
Report: New England has failed to cover the spread in six consecutive games dating back to last season and is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games overall. Since Tom Brady left for greener pastures, the Patriots are 25-28 SU and 24-28-1 ATS. The Patriots have opened the season with back-to-back seasons for the first time since 2001 and head coach Bill Belichick is 2-6 SU in September affairs over the past three years. However, New England has won fourteen straight games in this series and is 23-2 SU against the Jets since December of 2010.
Betting Trends Favoring New York
- Since 2005, NFL home underdogs in games with totals of 45 points or less are 106-74-8 ATS (58.9%) in the first three weeks of the regular season;
- Since 2004, NFL divisional home underdogs in September affairs are 76-48-2 ATS (61.3%), including 22-12-1 ATS (64.7%) since 2018;
- Since 2017, AFC underdogs of seven points or less are 242-180-13 ATS (57.3%) versus conference opponents;
- Since 1989, NFL home underdogs of less than three points in games with totals of fewer than 43 points are 107-78-3 ATS (57.8%) following a contest in which they were outgained, including 19-7-1 SU and 23-4 ATS (85.2%) since 2015.
As indicated above, the Patriots are a perfect 14-0 SU in the past fourteen meetings in this series and 17-1 SU since 2014. Without Aaron Rodgers, New York will have to rely on Zach Wilson, who has the second-lowest EPA/play among quarterbacks who have taken at least 300 snaps since the beginning of last season.
Betting Trends Favoring New England
- Since 1989, Week 3 teams that failed to cover their first two games are 100-65-1 ATS (60.6%) versus teams that have covered at least one of their games, including 28-14 ATS (66.7%) since 2016, covering the spread by an average of +3.43 points per game;
- Since 2005, winless teams in Weeks 2-13 are 51-25-2 ATS (67.1%) versus teams with one win exact coming off a loss, including 24-5-1 ATS (82.8%) since 2017;
- Winless road teams in Weeks 3-6 of the regular season are 97-64-2 ATS (60%), producing a net profit of +17%;
- Since 2010, NFL teams that start out 0-2 are 33-13 ATS (71.7%) in Week 3 affairs versus 1-1 teams
Atlanta Falcons +3 over Detroit Lions
Report: Detroit is favored in its third game or later against an undefeated team for just the second time in the last 20 seasons, but my math model only favors the Lions by 1.3 points in this matchup. Since 1995, NFL underdogs (or pick) coming off a game in which they committed two or fewer turnovers are 90-48-4 ATS (65.2%) versus teams off a game in which they had a +3 or greater turnover margin and committed fewer than four turnovers, covering the spread by an average margin of +1.89 points per game.
Atlanta also falls into a very good 71-37-10 ATS (65.7%) system of mine that invests on certain underdogs of three points or less in the first three weeks of the regular season, covering the spread by an average of +3.69 points per game. This situation is 35-18-1 SU and 39-12-3 ATS (76.5%) since 2016, covering by +5.57 points per game in that span.
Since 2005, NFL teams coming off an overtime loss by a touchdown are 32-40 SU and 30-41-1 ATS (42.3%), failing to cover by an average of -1.72 points per game.
Since 2014, NFL home favorites coming off a loss are 136-195-8 ATS (41.1%) versus teams that are not on a six-plus game losing streak, including 53-96-3 ATS (35.6%) since 2019, falling short of market expectations by an average of -2.9 points per game.
NFL Betting Trends for Sunday, September 24
- Since 1992, NFL road underdogs of less than seven points that won fewer than seven games the previous season are 588-456-33 ATS (56.3%), including 157-82-10 ATS (65.7%) in the first four weeks of the regular season, covering the spread by an average margin of +3.4 points per game
- Since 1989, small home favorites or underdogs are 78-103 SU and 56-118-7 ATS (32.2%) following a road loss in September affairs, failing to cover the spread by an average of -4.04 points per game. This situation is 2-15-1 ATS since September 15, 2019, and 1-9-1 ATS in its last eleven circumstances.
Join Oskeim Sports today and save 20% on your first purchase at the online store!