Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Friday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Philadelphia Phillies (-155) at Pittsburgh Pirates
Report: Since 2005, non-divisional road favorites with rest are 546-340 SU (61.6%; +6.7% ROI) and 399-386 RL (+10% ROI) versus unrested teams in the opening game of a series, including 194-86 SU (69.3%; +16% ROI) and 165-115 RL (58.9%; +22.4% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average margin of +1.99 runs per game. The foregoing situation also contains a 463-279 SU (62.4%; +7.7% ROI) and 373-364 RL (+9.2% ROI) subset angle that is 68.8% straight-up since 2019, producing a net return of +15.3% in that span. Since 2009, MLB home underdogs coming off a game that went under the total in which both teams failed to score in the first inning are 1215-1749 SU (41%; -7% ROI) and 1560-1396 RL( -6.7% ROI), losing by an average of 1.11 runs per game.
Finally, since 2007, non-divisional road favorites coming off a win are 463-332 SU (58.2%; +2.9% ROI) in the first game of a series with a total of 8.5 runs or less, including 131-67 SU (66.2%; +13.1% ROI) and 111-87 RL (56.1%; +13% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +1.93 runs per game.
Minnesota Twins (-170) at Kansas City Royals
Report: Since 2004, favorites of -135 or greater with one day of rest coming off a game as home favorites in which they gave up 4 or more runs are 380-190 SU (66.7%; +6.2% ROI) and 229-243 RL (+3.9% ROI), including 228-96 SU (70.4%; +12.3% ROI) and 142-126 RL (+13.4% ROI) following a game as home favorites in which they gave up six or more runs, winning by an average of +1.72 runs per game. Since 2007, home underdogs coming off a loss are 1991-2831 SU (41.3%; -6.3% ROI) and 2561-2241 RL (-5% ROI) in games that start after 4 p.m. eastern time, including 512-828 SU (38.2%; -9.7% ROI) and 667-672 RL (-9.3% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.32 runs per game.
Finally, MLB divisional road favorites of -160 or greater are 458-199 SU (69.7%; +6.3% ROI) and 365-291 RL (55.6%; +2.7% ROI) versus teams with revenge, winning by an average margin of +1.96 runs per game.
Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves (-175)
Report: Since 2004, MLB home favorites of -154 or greater with starting pitchers coming off a loss in which they allowed eight or more runs are 542-287 SU (65.4%; +1% ROI) and 407-420 RL (+3% ROI), winning by an average of +1.59 runs per game. Since 2005, MLB home favorites coming off a non-divisional game in which they had less than 9 hits are 389-242 SU (61.6%; +5.2% ROI) versus teams off a game as home favorites, including 80-31 SU (72.1%; +20.5% ROI) and 59-52 RL (+22.9% ROI) since 2020, winning by an average margin of +1.61 runs per game.
Since 2014, MLB road underdogs of greater than +115 coming off a shutout win by three runs or less are 96-163 SU (37.1%; -8.3% ROI) and 136-122 RL (-9.9% ROI). Finally, Los Milwaukee falls into negative 2650-4702 (36%; -4.2% ROI) and 2308-4117 (35.9%; -4.4% ROI) systems of mine that have cost bettors over -$41,000 against the run line since 2006.
Bonus MLB Betting Trends for Friday, July 28
- Since 2005, MLB favorites of -191 or greater in the first game of a series are 1285-536 SU (70.6%; +1.5% ROI) and 911-733 RL (55.4%; +3.5% ROI), including 583-221 SU (72.5%; +3.5% ROI) and 465-337 RL (58%; +4.8% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average of +2.19 runs per game
- Since 2004, large home favorites with certain run differentials are 1476-611 SU (70.7%; +2.5% ROI) and 906-798 RL (+3.3% ROI), including 416-159 SU (72.3%; +4.6% ROI) and 317-255 RL (55.4%; +4.7% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average of +2.06 runs per game
- .Los Angeles starter Lucas Giolito is 3-20 SU (13%; -71.4% ROI) and 11-12 RL (-21.3% ROI) since August 27, 2019, as an underdog versus American League foes, losing by an average of -2.35 runs per game.
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