There is no question that 2010 was one of the most frustrating years for me from a handicapping standpoint as we suffered a plethora of losses due to negative variance, which is an inherent part of sports investing. While the bad breaks generally balance out over the course of a season, 2010 was an anomaly as far as the laws of probability are concerned as we suffered countless losses due to negative variance in the final minutes (or innings) of games, and we also lost the majority of the “toss-up” games throughout the year. For example, we lost two NFL games in overtime despite having invested on both underdogs (each getting 3 or more points), including the Browns who lost by 6 after giving up a touchdown in the final seconds of overtime.
Despite not catching my fair share of good breaks last year (I have also had years where the luck was squarely on my side), my handicapping was very sound in 2010 as we generated a net profit of +47.01 stars, which is an annual rate of return exceeding 39%. Please see below for a detailed breakdown of how I performed in each quarter of 2010:
2010 PROFIT/LOSS STATEMENT:
First Quarter (Jan., Feb., Mar.): +14.47 net stars (+4.82 units); +48.2% Rate of Return
Second Quarter (Apr., May, Jun.): +6.2 net stars (+2.10 units); +21% Rate of Return
Third Quarter (Jul., Aug., Sept.): +33.74 net stars (+11.25 units); +112.5% Rate of Return
Fourth Quarter (Oct., Nov., Dec.): -7.4 net stars (-2.46 units): -24.6% Rate of Return
I arrived at the quarterly figures above by dividing our net winnings by 40 (bankroll) and then multiplying that figure by 4 to annualize the return.
OVERALL: +47.01 net stars (15.67 units)
RATE OF RETURN FOR 2010: +39.2%
I am proud of the fact that I once again out-performed the stock market in 2010, although our profits certainly took a hit in the final weeks of the calendar year. Indeed, we lost 7.4 net stars of profit in the 4th quarter, which was predominantly caused by a very disappointing month of December wherein we lost over 11 net stars to the bankroll. Like you, I am extremely disappointed about the recent downturn (yes, it has completely sucked), and I am working harder than ever to make 2011 the most profitable season yet at my sports investment firm. With that said, a 39.2% Rate of Return is very good no matter how you look at it, especially after all of the bad beats that haunted us in football.
To see how 2010 compares to previous years at Oskeim Sports, simply click the following link:
Thank you again for being a valued member of my sports investment firm. If you have any questions or concerns, please do not hesitate to contact me at your convenience.
Happy New Year,
Oskeim Sports Consulting, LLC