The 2022 NCAA Basketball Tournament has certainly had a lot of surprises along the way. But it wasn’t as crazy as the 2021 Tourney, when there were a record-setting 16 wins by teams seeded 10 or worse (not including the “First Four” play-in round). This tournament “only” had 13 wins by teams seeded 10 or worse. But it did also have the historic journey of #15-seed Saint Peter’s, which became the first team seeded 13 (or higher) to reach the Elite Eight round.
The 2021 event also had the most upsets (14) by a team seeded at least 5 spots worse than its opponent, but this tournament fell just shy of that mark with 12 such upsets. But, like last year, when the final matched-up #1 seeds Baylor and Gonzaga, the cream eventually rose to the top this season, and we have three teams in the Final Four seeded #1 or #2. Only #8 North Carolina is truly a dark horse.
Let’s take a look at first four rounds of this tournament, from a point spread perspective. We’ll not include the First Four games in this analysis.
The most striking fact is that underdogs have done very well, as they’ve gone 33-26 ATS (with one game a PK). Here is a breakdown by seeds:
#1 seeds: 9-3 SU, 3-9 ATS
#2 seeds: 9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS
#3 seeds: 6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS
#4 seeds: 8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS
#5 seeds: 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS
#6 seeds: 1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS
#7 seeds: 3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS
#8 seeds: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS
#9 seeds: 3-4 SU, 6-1 ATS
#10 seeds: 3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS
#11 seeds: 5-4 SU, 6-3 ATS
#12 seeds: 2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS
#13 seeds: 0-4 SU, 3-1 ATS
#14 seeds: 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS
#15 seeds: 3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS
#16 seeds: 0-4 SU, 2-2 ATS
And here is a breakdown of point spread ranges:
Underdogs of +3.5 or less: 9-11 ATS
Underdogs +4 to +7.5: 10-6 ATS
Underdogs +8 to +11.5: 7-2 ATS
Underdogs of +12 or more: 7-7 ATS
Like last season, the games have tended to go under the total, as the unders are 34-26 through the first four rounds (35-29 if you include the “First Four games).
Let’s take a look at some other point spread situations:
Teams that won their conference tournament (against foes that didn’t win their conference tournament): 15-16 ATS
Teams off a straight-up loss (against foes not off a loss): 8-9 ATS
Teams off back-to-back losses (against foes not off back-to-back losses): 3-2 ATS
Teams off ATS loss (against foes not off an ATS loss): 13-17 ATS
Teams off back-to-back-ATS losses (against foes not off back-to-back ATS losses): 12-12 ATS
Teams off back-to-back ATS wins (against foes not off back-to-back ATS wins): 19-13 ATS
Teams off 3 SU/ATS wins (against foes not off 3 SU/ATS wins): 13-9 ATS
Teams off an upset win (against foes not off an upset win): 11-10 ATS
Teams off an upset loss (against foes not off an upset loss): 6-8 ATS
Teams off a double-digit win (against foes not off a double-digit win): 13-10 ATS
Teams playing with revenge: 3-1 ATS
Good luck, as always…
Al McMordie