Wednesday’s college basketball card has several appealing matchups, including one in the American Athletic Conference between Memphis and Houston. Please find below Oskeim’s betting preview on this college basketball clash:
Memphis continues to be overrated by the college basketball betting market as evidenced by the following trends: 7-15 ATS versus teams with a winning record, 6-14 ATS on the road versus teams with a winning home record, 4-10 ATS following a win and 7-19 ATS versus .601 or greater opposition.
In contrast, the Cougars are a profitable 20-9 ATS in their last 29 games overall, 9-3 ATS in their last twelve home games, 11-5-1 ATS in their last seventeen conference games, 23-7-1 ATS at home versus teams with a .399 or worse road record and 8-3 ATS in their last eleven games after failing to cover the point spread.
Houston possesses a very good offense that is averaging 77.6 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 69.7 points per game. The Cougars are 12-2 SU and 7-2 ATS at home this season where they are averaging 80.2 points per game on 46.7% shooting from the field.
Sophomore Rob Gray, Jr. leads the Cougars and the American Athletic Conference with 17.3 points per game, while senior forward Devonta Pollard is second on the team with 12.7 points per game and junior guard Damyean Dotson is third with 12.6 points per game.
Gray has missed the last several games due to an ankle injury and his status remains questionable tonight (my sources indicate his return is “likely”), but the Cougars recently took down SMU 71-68 without their leading scorer. Houston has filled the void left by Gray’s absence with two transfers – Ronnie Johnson and Dotson – who are both playing extremely well. Houston’s backcourt is further enhanced by senior guard LeRon Barnes, who is shooting 50.0% from the field and 43.1% from beyond the arc and is second on the team with 5.8 rebounds per game.
I expect the Cougars to have success exploiting a soft Memphis defense that is allowing 80.8 points per game on the road and 77.2 points over its last five games. Meanwhile, the Tigers’ attack has been slowed by poor shooting (40.4% FG), particularly on the road where they are making just 39.6% of their field goal attempts. The Tigers’ shooting woes will likely continue against a solid Houston defense that is limiting opponents to 40.1% from the field and 27.3% from three-point territory on its home floor.
Houston is eager is avenge its blowout losses to Memphis last season (73-54; 62-44) and will improve to 10-1 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less over the last three seasons. With Memphis standing at 5-13 ATS as a road underdog over the last two seasons, lay the points in this college basketball clash and invest with confidence.
Oskeim Sports’ College Basketball Betting Report:
I can confirm that sharp money is favoring LSU, Butler and Utah tonight. My math model agrees with all three sides, although the professionals got the best of the number, leaving little to no value to those who want to tail the sharp moves.