Oskeim Sports’ Free NFL Betting Preview: Dallas at Green Bay

Dec 11, 2015

GREEN BAY, WI - NOVEMBER 15: Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys players line up at the line of scrimmage prior to the snap of the football during the game between the Dallas Cowboys against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on November 15, 2009 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. Green Bay Packers defeated the Dallas Cowboys 17-7. (Photo by Scott Boehm/Getty Images)

I’m not sure if there is a team in the NFL that has regressed more than the Packers have over the last six games. Green Bay is one Hail Mary touchdown away from being 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS over that span, and the Packers have been outgained by an average of 151 yards over their last eight games overall. The last six contests have also been unkind to Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who is averaging just 222 passing yards per game at 5.5 yards per pass attempt over that span.

At 4-8, Dallas is only one game back in the NFC East and is coming off an emotionally uplifting 19-16 win over division foe Washington on Monday night. The Cowboys’ offense has actually performed well on the road this season where it is averaging 7.5 yards per pass play and 5.8 yards per play. I expect those numbers to improve against a subpar Green Bay stop unit that is allowing 357 total yards per game at 5.7 yards per play to teams that would combine to average just 5.6 yards per play.

Dallas also possesses a decent stop unit that is allowing 326 total yards per game at 5.6 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yards per play. More importantly, the Cowboys’ defense is limiting opponents to a mere 257 total yards per game at 4.8 yards per play on grass and 257 total yards per game at 4.8 yards per play over its last three games. Interestingly, the Cowboys are 3-1 SU and ATS on natural playing surfaces (i.e. grass), limiting opponents to just 12.5 points per game and 58 rushing yards at 2.8 yards per carry. Dallas’ front seven is also yielding an impressive 78 rushing yards per game at 3.5 yards per carry on the road in 2015.

As I alluded to earlier, Green Bay’s overall statistical profile has been in steady decline over the last several weeks. Overall, the Packers’ offense is mediocre at best, averaging 5.6 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yards per play. Over its last three games, Green Bay is averaging 333 total yards at 5.0 yards per play, while Rodgers is averaging 210 passing yards at 5.6 yards per pass attempt. The fact hat Green Bay is favored by seven points in this game is truly mind-boggling in light of the fact that both teams are even from the line of scrimmage.

From a technical standpoint, Dallas is a profitable 6-0 ATS in its last six December games, 9-1 ATS in its last ten games on grass, 4-1 ATS in its last five road games versus teams with a winning home record and 11-4 ATS in its last fifteen road games overall.

The Cowboys are also 7-0-1 ATS on the road following a road till and take the field with legitimate revenge after last year’s controversial NFL playoff loss in Green Bay. My NFL math model only favors Green Bay by two points and the Packers are 0-12 ATS after playing Detroit versus division foes with revenge. Grab the generous points with the Cowboys in this NFL clash on Sunday afternoon!

Oskeim Sports’ Free NFL Betting Preview & Pick: Dallas Cowboys (+7)