Atlanta starter Julio Teheran is having a phenomenal season to date, posting a 2.66 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over his first fifteen starts. The talented right-hander also owns a 2.80 ERA and 1.04 WHIP at night and a 2.66 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in his last three outings.
Teheran also has history on his side as he’s enjoyed success against the Mets, going 6-3 with a 2.67 ERA in 12 career appearances (11 starts; 70 2/3 IP). Last Sunday, Teheran threw a one-hit complete-game shutout against the Mets.
The 25-year-old’s peripherals are also decent: 3.84 FIP, 3.97 xFIP, 3.75 SIERA and a 17.7% K-BB%. My only concern with Teheran is the fact that he has been aided by an unsustainable .206 BABIP, together with a career-best 81.6% LOB%.
Those two facts alone suggest Teheran’s ERA will regress closer to his 3.84 FIP in the coming weeks. Interestingly, since 2013, the righty is ranked 44th in pitching Wins Above Replacement despite being 11th in innings pitched.
Looking at additional ancillary categories, Teheran is ranked 9th in BABIP (.271) and 22nd in PU% (4.3), two numbers that can certainly suppress a pitcher’s ERA. The high pop-up percentage, in particular, helps explain the 54 point gap between his ERA and FIP over the last 2+ seasons.
For the fantasy players out there, I have Teheran projected as a solid mid-rotation arm as opposed to the “ace” Atlanta general manager John Coppolella is currently shopping him to other teams as.
The ‘under’ is 4-0 in Teheran’s last four outings, 4-1-1 in his last six starts in game 3 of a series, 4-1-1 in his last six home starts and 5-2-1 in his last 8 home starts versus teams with a winning record.
The ‘under’ is also 6-1 in Atlanta’s last seven games, 4-0 in its last 4 games versus right-handed starters and 6-2 in its last 8 home games. New York starter Jacob deGrom is 3-3 with a career 2.25 ERA with 50 strikeouts in 44 innings pitched against the Braves.
The 28-year-old toes the rubber with a 2.96 ERA in 2016, supported by a 3.08 FIP, 3.42 xFIP and 3.61 SIERA. DeGrom has also enjoyed a very strong June, posting a 3.24 ERA, 2.57 FIP, 2.14 xFIP, 33.7% K%, 4.0% BB% and a 29.7% K-BB%.
The surging right-hander now faces an anemic Atlanta lineup that is averaging 3.4 runs per game (.236 AVG.; .295 OBP; .622 OPS), including 3.3 runs per game versus division opponents (.235 AVG.; .289 OBP; .611 OPS). Let’s also note that the ‘under’ is 8-2 in deGrom’s last 10 starts on full rest, 5-0 in his last 5 starts in game 3 of a series and 4-1 in his last five road starts.
He is also supported by a very good New York bullpen that owns a 3.06 ERA and 1.20 WHIP this season, including a 2.45 ERA and 1.11 WHIP on the road, a 2.97 ERA and 1.30 WHIP versus division foes and a 2.63 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over its last seven games. The Braves’ relief staff has posted a 1.93 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in division play this season, while also entering tonight’s game having thrown 19 1/3 consecutive scoreless innings.
Finally, the ‘under’ is 8-3 in Teheran’s last 11 starts against the Mets and 4-1 in the last five meetings overall in this series. With 4 of home plate umpire Ryan Blakney’s games landing ‘under’ the total, take UNDER 7 runs and invest with confidence.